TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the top US Netflix show this week?
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Show title nomenclature divergence and WWE Raw episode date mismatch between platforms. Polymarket includes a catch-all "another show" option absent from Kalshi, and the two platforms reference different WWE Raw episodes (April 20 vs April 13, 2026).Hero Tip:
Before trading, confirm with both platforms whether "Funny AF with Kevin Hart" (Polymarket) and "Funny AF: Season 1" (Kalshi) resolve identically, and which WWE Raw episode (April 13 or April 20, 2026) will be used if Raw ranks #1. The Polymarket catch-all creates a hedge opportunity: if you believe the #1 show is not explicitly listed on either platform, Polymarket's "another show" option may offer value.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: 22 binary questions covering named shows plus a generic "another show" catch-all. References "Raw: 2026 - April 20, 2026" as a specific option. Resolution based on Netflix's top10.netflix.com update on April 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. Fallback to "Other" if update does not occur by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Key quote: 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".'
- Kalshi: 13 binary questions covering named shows with season/episode qualifiers (e.g., "Trust Me: The False Prophet: Season 1", "Funny AF: Season 1"). References "Raw: 2026 - April 13, 2026" as a specific option. Resolution based on Netflix's Top 10 US Show chart published April 28, 2026. No explicit fallback or deadline language. Key quote: 'If [Show Title] is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Apr 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.