TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 Movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, April 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 Netflix movie in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi defines the event as a multi-outcome market where exactly one of 12 named movies resolves YES if it ranks #1 on April 7, 2026, while Polymarket structures it as 29 separate binary yes/no questions covering the same 12 movies plus 15 placeholder movies and an 'other' catch-all, with an explicit fallback to 'Other' resolution if Netflix does not publish by April 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on one of exactly 12 specific movies; if one of those 12 is #1, that single market resolves YES and the rest NO. On Polymarket, you can bet on any of 29 separate outcomes, including 15 placeholder movies and an 'other' option. If Netflix fails to publish by April 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket explicitly resolves to 'Other', while Kalshi's rules do not address this contingency. Ensure your platform choice aligns with your confidence in Netflix's publication timing and your willingness to trade on placeholder outcomes.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers 12 mutually exclusive binary markets, each tied to a single named movie. Exactly one will resolve YES if that movie ranks #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on April 7, 2026; all others resolve NO. No fallback or 'other' option is defined. The rules state 'If [Movie X] is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie on the chart published on Apr 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers 29 separate binary yes/no questions covering 12 named movies, 15 placeholder movies (Movie A through Movie O), and an explicit 'other' catch-all. The resolution source is the Netflix Top 10 Movies list update expected on April 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, with a critical fallback: 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to Other.' This creates a contingency outcome absent from Kalshi.
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