TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
Volume:
$265,702
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group determines which movie will rank #1 on Netflix's US Top 10 Movies list as published on March 31, 2026. Both platforms resolve based on Netflix's official weekly ranking update, which reflects viewership data from the prior week (Monday to Sunday). The resolution hinges on a single, objective data point: Netflix's published #1 movie ranking on that specific date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use Netflix's official Top 10 Movies ranking published on March 31, 2026, as the sole arbiter; the movie ranked #1 on that date resolves all markets consistently.
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix Top 10 Movies list (top10.netflix.com) published March 31, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting US viewership data from the prior week.Core resolution logic:
- Netflix publishes its Top 10 Movies ranking every Tuesday at 3:00 PM ET on top10.netflix.com.
- The movie ranked in the #1 position on the March 31, 2026 update is the resolution outcome.
- All binary questions ('Will [Movie X] be the top US Netflix movie this week?') resolve YES for the #1 movie and NO for all others.
- The 'Other' or catch-all option resolves YES only if no movie can be definitively identified as #1 due to Netflix's failure to publish by the April 3, 2026 deadline.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Netflix publication delay or failure: If Netflix does not publish the Top 10 Movies update by April 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 'Other'. Kalshi markets lack explicit contingency language and would require manual intervention or clarification from the platform.
- Tie or co-ranking: Netflix's official ranking methodology produces a single #1 movie; ties are not expected. If Netflix reports multiple movies at #1, the market operator should defer to Netflix's published ordering or seek clarification.
- Movie not on Kalshi's predefined list: If the actual #1 movie is not among Kalshi's 16 named options (e.g., Trolls, Jurassic World: Dominion, Nobody 2, etc.), Kalshi's market structure does not accommodate that outcome and would require manual resolution or cancellation.
- Polymarket 'Another movie' option: Polymarket includes a catch-all 'Will another movie be the top US Netflix movie this week?' which resolves YES if the #1 movie is not explicitly named in the other Polymarket questions.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on March 31, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes its Top 10 Movies update. If publication does not occur by April 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 'Other'; Kalshi's contingency is undefined.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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