TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Joe’s College Road Trip
- Kalshi
Joe’s College Road Trip - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Feb 25, 2026
Top US Netflix Movie on Feb 23, 2026?
Amount
$
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 25 of 30
Description
This event group predicts which movie will rank #1 on Netflix's US Top 10 Movies chart for the week ending February 24, 2026. Both platforms use the same official Netflix ranking data source and resolution date, with Kalshi offering 11 individual binary markets and Polymarket offering multiple binary outcomes plus a catch-all 'other' option.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms resolve against the same official Netflix Top 10 Movies ranking published on February 24, 2026, with identical scope (US movies only) and timing (3:00 PM ET update reflecting prior week viewership).Primary resolution logic: Netflix Top 10 Movies chart published at top10.netflix.com on February 24, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, based on total US viewership.Core resolution logic:
- Resolution occurs on the Netflix Top 10 Movies chart update published February 24, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET
- The #1 ranked movie on that chart determines which market resolves to Yes
- Ranking is based on total views in the United States as reported by Netflix for movies
- Kalshi covers 11 named movies (Homefront, The Investigation of Lucy Letby, How to Train Your Dragon, The Black Phone, Night at the Museum, A Father's Miracle, Overboard 2018, Joe's College Road Trip, KPop Demon Hunters, Flipped, The Expendables 4)
- Polymarket covers similar named movies plus generic placeholders (Movie A-K) and a catch-all 'another movie' option
- Exactly one outcome resolves Yes; all others resolve No
Edge cases & clarifications:
- No Netflix Update by Deadline: If the Netflix Top 10 chart update does not occur by February 27, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket explicitly resolves to 'Other'. Kalshi does not specify a fallback; assume resolution is delayed pending data availability.
- Tie or Shared #1 Ranking: Netflix does not publish ties in its Top 10 ranking. If two movies show identical view counts, Netflix's official ranking determines the single #1 position; that movie's market resolves Yes.
- Movie Not on Chart: If a named movie (e.g., Homefront) is not present on the February 24 chart at all, that binary market resolves No. The #1 movie on the chart, regardless of whether it was pre-listed, determines the winner.
- Polymarket Generic Placeholder Movies: Polymarket includes questions for Movie A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K with no title specification. These are likely placeholders for unknown releases or serve as catch-all slots. Resolution depends on Netflix's actual #1 ranking on the date.