This event group predicts which movie will rank #1 on Netflix's US Top 10 Movies chart for the week ending February 24, 2026. Both platforms use the same official Netflix ranking data source and resolution date, with Kalshi offering 11 individual binary markets and Polymarket offering multiple binary outcomes plus a catch-all 'other' option.
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms resolve against the same official Netflix Top 10 Movies ranking published on February 24, 2026, with identical scope (US movies only) and timing (3:00 PM ET update reflecting prior week viewership).
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix Top 10 Movies chart published at top10.netflix.com on February 24, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, based on total US viewership.
Core resolution logic:
Resolution occurs on the Netflix Top 10 Movies chart update published February 24, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET
The #1 ranked movie on that chart determines which market resolves to Yes
Ranking is based on total views in the United States as reported by Netflix for movies
Kalshi covers 11 named movies (Homefront, The Investigation of Lucy Letby, How to Train Your Dragon, The Black Phone, Night at the Museum, A Father's Miracle, Overboard 2018, Joe's College Road Trip, KPop Demon Hunters, Flipped, The Expendables 4)
Polymarket covers similar named movies plus generic placeholders (Movie A-K) and a catch-all 'another movie' option
Exactly one outcome resolves Yes; all others resolve No
Edge cases & Clarifications:
No Netflix Update by Deadline: If the Netflix Top 10 chart update does not occur by February 27, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket explicitly resolves to 'Other'. Kalshi does not specify a fallback; assume resolution is delayed pending data availability.
Tie or Shared #1 Ranking: Netflix does not publish ties in its Top 10 ranking. If two movies show identical view counts, Netflix's official ranking determines the single #1 position; that movie's market resolves Yes.
Movie Not on Chart: If a named movie (e.g., Homefront) is not present on the February 24 chart at all, that binary market resolves No. The #1 movie on the chart, regardless of whether it was pre-listed, determines the winner.
Polymarket Generic Placeholder Movies: Polymarket includes questions for Movie A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K with no title specification. These are likely placeholders for unknown releases or serve as catch-all slots. Resolution depends on Netflix's actual #1 ranking on the date.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on February 24, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes its Top 10 Movies chart. If the update does not occur by February 27, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 'Other'; Kalshi status is unspecified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.