TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Apex
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
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Positive
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Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Apr 28, 2026
Closed: Apr 28, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 Movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 Netflix movie in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms reference the identical Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on April 28, 2026, and resolve based on which movie ranks #1 by total US viewership. The core logic is unified; only a minor procedural gap exists regarding non-publication fallback.Primary resolution logic: Netflix Top 10 official chart (top10.netflix.com) published April 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the prior week (Monday to Sunday)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution occurs on April 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes its Top 10 US Movie chart update
- The movie ranked #1 on that chart (by total US views) determines the winner
- Kalshi lists 11 specific movies (KPop Demon Hunters, The Requin, Nobody Dumps My Daughter, Thrash, Roommates, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, 180, Husband Father Killer, Untold: Jail Blazers, Halloween Ends, Apex); any of these resolves Yes if ranked #1
- Polymarket lists 20+ specific movies plus a catch-all "another movie" option; exactly one resolves Yes
- If any other movie (not explicitly listed) ranks #1, Polymarket's "another movie" resolves Yes; Kalshi's implicit residual applies
- Ranking is based solely on total views in the United States as reported by Netflix for movies
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Non-publication by deadline: Polymarket explicitly resolves to Other if the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi does not specify a fallback; assume Kalshi would also resolve to Other or No in this scenario, but this is a procedural gap.
- Tie or simultaneous ranking: Netflix's official chart will show a single #1 movie; ties are not expected. If Netflix displays multiple movies at rank #1, use Netflix's official ordering or first-listed position.
- Movie name variations or typos: Polymarket includes placeholder names (Movie A, Movie B, Movie C, etc.) and specific titles (The Requin, Apex, etc.). Kalshi lists only real movie titles. Assume exact string matching to Netflix's official chart title.
- Unlisted movie ranks #1: If a movie not named on either platform ranks #1, Polymarket resolves via the catch-all "another movie" option. Kalshi has no explicit catch-all; assume residual or Other.