This event group predicts which movie will rank #1 on Netflix's US Top 10 Movies chart for the week ending February 17, 2026. Both platforms resolve based on Netflix's official top10.netflix.com update published on Tuesday, February 17, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET, measuring total US viewership.
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical resolution logic: the #1 ranked movie on Netflix's official Top 10 US Movies chart published February 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET determines the winner, with no material divergence in criteria or source.
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix official top10.netflix.com Top 10 Movies ranking published Tuesday, February 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the prior week (Monday to Sunday)
Core resolution logic:
Resolution date is fixed: Tuesday, February 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Resolution source is Netflix's official top10.netflix.com Top 10 Movies list
Ranking metric is total US viewership as reported by Netflix for movies
The movie ranked in position #1 on that list resolves all matching markets to Yes
All other movies resolve to No
Kalshi offers 12 named movie outcomes; Polymarket offers 12 named movies plus an Other option
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Update Delay or Failure: Polymarket explicitly resolves to Other if top10.netflix.com does not update by February 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi does not specify a fallback; if the update fails, Kalshi markets would likely remain unresolved pending clarification.
Movie Not Listed: If the #1 movie is not among the 12 named options on either platform, Polymarket resolves to Other; Kalshi has no explicit Other option and would require manual adjudication.
Tie or Ambiguous Ranking: Netflix does not publish ties in its Top 10 list; the platform assigns a single #1 position. No tie resolution logic is needed.
Polymarket Movie Aliases: Polymarket uses placeholder names (Movie A through Movie K) for some outcomes, while Kalshi names all 12 movies explicitly. Mapping between platforms requires external confirmation of which Movie letter corresponds to which title.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on Tuesday, February 17, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes its Top 10 Movies chart. Polymarket allows a grace period until February 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for the update to occur; if it does not, Polymarket resolves to Other.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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