TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Bridgerton: Season 4
- Polymarket
Bridgerton: Season 4 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Mar 11, 2026
Closed: Mar 9, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model: Season 1
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$103
N/A
N/A
$103
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 29
Description
This event group determines which show will rank #1 on Netflix's global Top 10 TV shows list as of the week ending March 10, 2026. Both platforms are betting on the same resolution date and source (Netflix's official top10.netflix.com rankings), but they differ significantly in their candidate show lists and fallback logic.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket define different candidate show lists and employ different fallback mechanisms. Kalshi lists 11 specific shows with no explicit fallback; Polymarket lists 19 questions including 11 undefined placeholder shows and an explicit "Other" resolution option with a hard deadline for data availability.Hero tip: Before settlement, obtain the official Netflix top10.netflix.com ranking for the week ending March 10, 2026. Cross-reference the #1 show against both Kalshi's 11-show list and Polymarket's named shows. If the #1 show appears on neither platform's list, Kalshi's markets will likely all resolve to No, while Polymarket will resolve to "Other". If Polymarket's placeholder shows (Show A-K) are never defined, those markets cannot be settled fairly and should be flagged for manual review.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: 11 specific shows listed as binary Yes/No outcomes. No explicit fallback or "Other" option stated. Resolution depends entirely on whether the #1 show matches one of: Bridgerton S4, Famous Last Words, The Night Agent S3, Harry Styles concert, Reality Check, The Lincoln Lawyer S4, Taylor Tomlinson special, The Hunting Party, Love Is Blind Ohio, Raw 2026, or Ms. Rachel S1. Key quote: 'If [show] is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Mar 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: 19 questions covering 8 named shows (Bridgerton S4, The Night Agent S3, The Dinosaurs, Vladimir, Blue Therapy, Gabby's Dollhouse S13, plus 2 others) and 11 undefined placeholder shows (Show A-K). Explicit "Other" fallback if Netflix does not publish by March 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Key quote: 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to Other.'