What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?
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Description
This event group determines which movie will rank #1 on Netflix's global Top 10 movies list for the week ending April 7, 2026. Both Kalshi and Polymarket are betting on the same underlying resolution source: Netflix's official global movie rankings published on April 7, 2026, based on total views from the prior week.
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket use the same official Netflix Global Top 10 Movies ranking published on April 7, 2026, as the sole resolution source, with identical movie candidates and a single #1 outcome.
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix official Global Top 10 Movies ranking at top10.netflix.com, published Tuesday, April 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the prior calendar week (Monday to Sunday)
Core resolution logic:
Netflix publishes its Global Top 10 Movies list on top10.netflix.com on April 7, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET
The ranking is based on total global views in the English-language movies category for the prior week
Exactly one movie will occupy the #1 position
All Kalshi markets resolve Yes if their specified movie is #1; all others resolve No
All Polymarket markets resolve Yes if their specified movie is #1; all others resolve No
If no movie is #1 or the update does not occur by April 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to Other; Kalshi has no explicit contingency
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Netflix update delay or non-publication: Polymarket explicitly resolves to Other if the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi does not specify a fallback; in practice, this would likely trigger a platform dispute or cancellation.
Tie for #1 position: Netflix's ranking system produces a single #1 movie; ties are not expected. If Netflix lists two movies as co-#1, the resolution would depend on Netflix's own tie-breaking methodology or explicit clarification from the platforms.
Movie not on the list: If a specified movie does not appear in the Top 10 at all, it cannot be #1, and that market resolves No.
Polymarket Movie A–O placeholder ambiguity: Polymarket includes generic placeholders (Movie A, B, C, etc.) alongside named titles. These are treated as distinct outcomes; if a placeholder movie is #1, only that specific placeholder market resolves Yes.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on April 7, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes its Global Top 10 Movies list. Polymarket enforces a hard deadline of April 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for the update to occur; if it does not, the market resolves to Other.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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