TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?
Description
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket includes a catch-all 'Will another movie be the top global Netflix movie this week?' option that creates a mutually exclusive outcome set, while Kalshi lists only specific named movies without an explicit 'other' category, creating different resolution scopes.Hero Tip:
If you bet on a specific movie on Polymarket, your YES outcome is mutually exclusive with the 'another movie' option. On Kalshi, if any movie not explicitly listed becomes #1, all Kalshi markets resolve NO. Ensure your bet aligns with which platform's scope matches your prediction.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket structures the market as a complete partition with 23 mutually exclusive outcomes, including a catch-all 'Will another movie be the top global Netflix movie this week?' option (Question 4). This ensures exactly one market resolves YES and all others resolve NO. The resolution source is 'Netflix's global Top 10 Movies list published on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, 3:00 PM ET' with a fallback to 'Other' if the update does not occur by April 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi lists 18 specific named movies as individual YES/NO binary markets with no explicit catch-all or 'other' option. Each market resolves YES only if that specific movie ranks #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Movie chart published on March 31, 2026, and resolves NO otherwise. If a movie not listed in Kalshi's 18 options becomes #1, all Kalshi markets resolve NO.
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