TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?
Description
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, March 24, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi provides an exhaustive list of 11 named movies that resolve YES if ranked #1, while Polymarket uses placeholder movie identifiers (Movie A-K) and includes an 'Other' catch-all category. Kalshi's list is concrete and deterministic; Polymarket's list is incomplete and ambiguous, making it impossible to verify which specific movies are covered or how 'Other' resolves.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you know exactly which 11 movies can resolve YES — any other #1 movie resolves NO. On Polymarket, the placeholder identifiers (Movie A, Movie B, etc.) are undefined, creating ambiguity about which real-world movies they represent. Avoid Polymarket unless the platform clarifies the Movie A-K mappings. Kalshi is the safer, more transparent market.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi specifies 11 concrete, named movies (The Captive, Jurassic World Rebirth, Nobody 2, War Machine, KPop Demon Hunters, Nuremberg, Jurassic World: Dominion, Gaslit By My Husband: The Morgan Metzer Story, Trolls, Trap House, Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man) that resolve YES if ranked #1 on March 24, 2026. Any other movie resolves NO. Quote: 'If [named movie] is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Movie on the chart published on Mar 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket uses undefined placeholder identifiers (Movie A through Movie K) and includes named movies (Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man, Nobody 2, War Machine, KPop Demon Hunters) alongside an 'Other' catch-all option. The placeholder movies are never defined, and the 'Other' category creates ambiguity about whether unmapped movies resolve to 'Other' or remain unresolvable. Quote: 'Will [Movie D/Movie F/Movie G/etc.] be the top global Netflix movie this week?' and 'Will another movie be the top global Netflix movie this week?'
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