TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Volume:
$507,125
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi diverge on the set of eligible shows. Polymarket includes placeholder shows (Show A through Show K) and an 'Other' catch-all category, while Kalshi specifies a fixed list of named shows with no catch-all, creating different outcome spaces and resolution scopes.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Polymarket's 'Other' or any placeholder show (Show A-K), your outcome may not resolve YES on Kalshi because those shows are not listed as eligible outcomes on Kalshi. Conversely, if the #2 show is one of Kalshi's named shows (e.g., Detective Hole, Ms. Rachel, Virgin River, Beauty in Black, Homicide: New York, The Predator of Seville, Raw, Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov), it will resolve YES on Kalshi but may resolve to 'Other' on Polymarket if that show is not explicitly named. Align your position with the platform you are trading on.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves based on which of 20 named shows or an 'Other' category becomes #2 on Netflix's official Top 10 list published April 14, 2026. The named shows include Some Very Bad is Going to Happen, Bandi, Danny Go!, Trust Me, Big Mistakes, Temptation Island, XO Kitty, Love on the Spectrum, and placeholder shows (Show A-K). If none of these resolve YES, the 'Other' market resolves YES. Key quote: 'This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States' and 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to Other'.
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves based on a fixed list of 13 named shows (Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen, Love on the Spectrum, Detective Hole, Ms. Rachel, Virgin River, Homicide: New York, Beauty in Black, XO Kitty, The Predator of Seville, Raw, Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov, Big Mistakes, Temptation Island). Each market resolves YES if that specific show is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published April 14, 2026. There is no catch-all 'Other' category. Key quote: 'If [named show] is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Apr 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes'.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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