TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Volume:
$150,523
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group determines which show will rank as #2 on Netflix's official US Top 10 TV shows list as published on March 17, 2026. Both platforms are betting on the same underlying resolution source: Netflix's official weekly ranking update, which reflects viewership data from the prior week (Monday–Sunday).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Candidate list fragmentation and placeholder ambiguity. Polymarket includes generic placeholder shows (Show A–K) with no real-world referent, while Kalshi lists only specific, named shows. The two platforms do not share an identical candidate set, creating a scenario where the actual #2 show may resolve YES on one platform but have no corresponding market on the other, or resolve NO across all markets on one platform if the actual #2 is not in that platform's candidate list.Hero Tip:
Before settlement, obtain the official Netflix Top 10 US TV shows list published March 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET from top10.netflix.com. Identify the show ranked #2. Cross-check that show's exact name and season/series identifier against BOTH Polymarket's candidate list (including placeholders) and Kalshi's named candidate list. If the actual #2 is a Polymarket placeholder (Show A–K), Kalshi will have no matching market and all Kalshi markets resolve NO. If the actual #2 is a real show not on Kalshi's list, all Kalshi markets resolve NO. If the actual #2 is on both lists, verify exact title match (season/series qualifiers matter). If Netflix does not publish an update by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to "Other"; Kalshi has no fallback and all markets resolve NO.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on Netflix's official top10.netflix.com update on March 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. Candidate list includes both real show titles (Bridgerton: Season 4, Love is Blind: The Reunion, Virgin River: Season 7, One Piece: Season 2, The Dinosaurs, Vladimir, Dynasty: The Murdochs, Age of Attraction, The TikTok Killer, Derrick Stroup: Nostalgic) and generic placeholders (Show A–K). Falls back to "Other" if update does not occur by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Key quote: "If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'."
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if a specific named show ranks #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published March 17, 2026. Candidate list includes 13 specific shows with full series/season identifiers: Bridgerton: Season 4, Vladimir: Limited Series, Bruce Bruce: I Ain't Playin', Raw: 2026 - March 2, 2026, A Friend, a Murderer: Limited Series, The TikTok Killer: Limited Series, Love Is Blind: Ohio, Ms. Rachel: Season 1, The Dinosaurs: Season 1, One Piece: Season, The Night Agent: Season 3, Virgin River: Season 7, One Piece: Season 2. No fallback or "Other" option; if the actual #2 is not in this list, all Kalshi markets resolve NO. Key quote: "If [Show Name] is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Mar 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.