TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
One Piece: Season
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Mar 18, 2026
#2 US Netflix Show on Mar 16, 2026?
Amount
$
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
Total markets: 25 of 34
Description
This event group determines which show will rank as #2 on Netflix's official US Top 10 TV shows list as published on March 17, 2026. Both platforms are betting on the same underlying resolution source: Netflix's official weekly ranking update, which reflects viewership data from the prior week (Monday–Sunday).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Candidate list fragmentation and placeholder ambiguity. Polymarket includes generic placeholder shows (Show A–K) with no real-world referent, while Kalshi lists only specific, named shows. The two platforms do not share an identical candidate set, creating a scenario where the actual #2 show may resolve YES on one platform but have no corresponding market on the other, or resolve NO across all markets on one platform if the actual #2 is not in that platform's candidate list.Hero tip: Before settlement, obtain the official Netflix Top 10 US TV shows list published March 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET from top10.netflix.com. Identify the show ranked #2. Cross-check that show's exact name and season/series identifier against BOTH Polymarket's candidate list (including placeholders) and Kalshi's named candidate list. If the actual #2 is a Polymarket placeholder (Show A–K), Kalshi will have no matching market and all Kalshi markets resolve NO. If the actual #2 is a real show not on Kalshi's list, all Kalshi markets resolve NO. If the actual #2 is on both lists, verify exact title match (season/series qualifiers matter). If Netflix does not publish an update by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to "Other"; Kalshi has no fallback and all markets resolve NO.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on Netflix's official top10.netflix.com update on March 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. Candidate list includes both real show titles (Bridgerton: Season 4, Love is Blind: The Reunion, Virgin River: Season 7, One Piece: Season 2, The Dinosaurs, Vladimir, Dynasty: The Murdochs, Age of Attraction, The TikTok Killer, Derrick Stroup: Nostalgic) and generic placeholders (Show A–K). Falls back to "Other" if update does not occur by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Key quote: "If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'."
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if a specific named show ranks #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published March 17, 2026. Candidate list includes 13 specific shows with full series/season identifiers: Bridgerton: Season 4, Vladimir: Limited Series, Bruce Bruce: I Ain't Playin', Raw: 2026 - March 2, 2026, A Friend, a Murderer: Limited Series, The TikTok Killer: Limited Series, Love Is Blind: Ohio, Ms. Rachel: Season 1, The Dinosaurs: Season 1, One Piece: Season, The Night Agent: Season 3, Virgin River: Season 7, One Piece: Season 2. No fallback or "Other" option; if the actual #2 is not in this list, all Kalshi markets resolve NO. Key quote: "If [Show Name] is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Mar 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."