This event group predicts which show will rank #2 on Netflix's US Top 10 TV shows list as published on February 17, 2026. Both platforms reference the same official Netflix ranking source and resolution date, with Kalshi listing 13 specific show outcomes and Polymarket offering multiple binary questions covering named shows plus an 'other' catch-all.
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms converge on a single resolution source (Netflix's official Top 10 ranking published February 17, 2026) and a single resolution metric (which show ranks #2 by total US views), with identical fallback logic for non-publication.
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix Top 10 TV shows ranking published on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, February 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the prior week (Monday to Sunday).
Core resolution logic:
Resolution is determined by the #2 position on Netflix's official Top 10 US Show list as published on February 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET.
Ranking is based on total views in the United States as reported by Netflix for TV shows.
Kalshi lists 13 specific show outcomes; exactly one will resolve Yes if that show occupies #2; all others resolve No.
Polymarket offers binary questions for named shows (Bridgerton Season 4, The Lincoln Lawyer Season 4, Love is Blind Season 10, How to Get to Heaven from Belfast, Is It Cake? Valentines, Star Search, and placeholder shows A-K) plus an 'other' catch-all.
If the #2 show matches a named outcome on either platform, that outcome resolves Yes; all others resolve No.
If the #2 show is not explicitly named on Polymarket, the 'other show' question resolves Yes.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Non-publication by deadline: If Netflix does not publish the Top 10 update by February 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 'Other'. Kalshi does not explicitly address this scenario; assume similar treatment (all specific outcomes No, catch-all Yes if applicable).
Tie at #2 position: Netflix's official ranking methodology determines a single #2 show; ties are not expected. If Netflix reports a tie, use Netflix's stated tiebreaker or primary listing.
Show name variations: Resolution uses the exact show title and season as listed on Netflix's Top 10 chart. Minor formatting differences (e.g., colons vs dashes) should be reconciled to the official Netflix label.
Placeholder shows on Polymarket: Polymarket includes questions for 'Show A' through 'Show K' without defining these shows. These are likely placeholder labels for real shows to be revealed or are intentionally vague. Resolution depends on Netflix's actual #2 ranking; if a placeholder show name does not match any real show, that question resolves No.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on or shortly after Tuesday, February 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, when Netflix publishes its Top 10 update. Final resolution deadline is February 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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