TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 Movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 Netflix movie in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi lists 13 specific movies as potential #2 outcomes with binary Yes/No resolution per movie, while Polymarket structures the same event as 22 separate binary questions covering overlapping and non-overlapping movie titles, plus an 'other' catch-all. Both platforms resolve on the same Netflix Top 10 chart published April 14, 2026, but differ in market structure and scope coverage.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on one of 13 named movies; if one of those 13 is #2, exactly one Kalshi market resolves YES. On Polymarket, you have 22 individual binary questions; if a movie not listed on Polymarket (but listed on Kalshi) is #2, Polymarket's 'another movie' catch-all resolves YES instead. Ensure your position aligns with which platform's market structure you are using.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers 13 binary markets, one per named movie (e.g., 'If The Truth and Tragedy of Moriah Wilson is #2... then the market resolves to Yes'). Each market resolves YES if that specific movie ranks #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published April 14, 2026, and NO otherwise. No catch-all for unlisted movies.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers 22 binary questions covering 20 named movies plus a catch-all ('Will another movie be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?'). Each question resolves YES if that movie is #2, or NO if it is not. The catch-all resolves YES if the #2 movie is not among the 20 named options. If the Netflix update does not occur by April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to 'Other'.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.