TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 Movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 Netflix movie in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket includes a catch-all 'Other' option and placeholder movies (Movie A through Movie K) that lack specific resolution criteria, while Kalshi provides only named, real movies with explicit Yes/No resolution conditions. This creates a scope divergence where Polymarket's outcome space is broader and less defined than Kalshi's.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Polymarket's 'Other' or placeholder movies (Movie A-K), your market may resolve differently than Kalshi because those options have no concrete resolution rules. Stick to named real movies (Jurassic World: Dominion, Nobody 2, etc.) that appear on both platforms for consistent cross-platform outcomes.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers 23 individual binary questions including named movies, placeholder movies (Movie A through Movie K), and a catch-all 'Other' option. The placeholder movies lack any definition or resolution criteria, and the 'Other' option resolves YES if the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, creating an undefined outcome space. Key quote: 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to Other.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi provides 16 explicit Yes/No resolution conditions tied only to named, real movies (Nuremberg, Trap House, Jurassic World Rebirth, etc.) plus three movies not mentioned in Polymarket (Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man, The Bad Guys 2, The Bad Guardian, Sisu: Road to Revenge, Anaconda, BTS: THE RETURN). Each condition is deterministic: if the named movie is #2 on the chart published March 31, 2026, the market resolves Yes. No catch-all or placeholder logic exists. Key quote: 'If [named movie] is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie on the chart published on Mar 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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