TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 Movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, March 24, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 Netflix movie in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses an inclusive list of 11 named movies that will each resolve YES if ranked #2, while Polymarket uses individual binary markets for specific movies plus a catch-all 'other' option. Kalshi's structure allows multiple YES resolutions if the resolution criteria are ambiguous, whereas Polymarket's binary design ensures exactly one outcome resolves YES.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, understand that the market structure lists 11 specific movies but does not explicitly state what happens if a movie outside this list ranks #2—this creates potential ambiguity. On Polymarket, the 'other' option provides explicit coverage for any movie not named, making the resolution space complete and mutually exclusive. Verify which movie actually ranks #2 on March 24, 2026, then cross-check against each platform's specific outcome rules.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi provides 11 conditional YES statements for named movies ('If KPop Demon Hunters is #2... then the market resolves to Yes') but does not explicitly define what happens if the #2 movie is not on this list. The resolution source is 'Netflix Top 10 US Movie on the chart published on Mar 24, 2026' with no fallback or 'other' category stated.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket structures the event as 22 individual binary markets, each asking 'Will [specific movie] be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?' plus an explicit 'Will another movie be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?' catch-all option. The resolution source is identical ('top10.netflix.com update on Tuesday, March 24, 2026, 3:00 PM ET') but the market design ensures exactly one outcome resolves YES and includes a defined 'Other' resolution path if the update does not occur by March 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.