TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
kalshi
polymarket

What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

Volume:
$41,515

Jurassic World Rebirth

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 10, 2026

Closed: Mar 10, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Jurassic World Rebirth

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,796
N/A
N/A
$9,328
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Jurassic World Rebirth

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,237
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Trap House

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,478
N/A
N/A
$3,423
Settled
No
polymarket

Nuremberg

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,262
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

War Machine

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,621
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kpop Demon Hunters

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,232
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

KPop Demon Hunters

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,041
N/A
N/A
$2,041
Settled
No
kalshi

The Addams Family

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,553
N/A
N/A
$1,553
Settled
No
polymarket

The Addams Family

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Firebreak

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$892
N/A
N/A
$892
Settled
No
kalshi

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$738
N/A
N/A
$738
Settled
No
kalshi

Fall

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$559
N/A
N/A
$559
Settled
No
kalshi

Joe’s College Road Trip

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$466
N/A
N/A
$466
Settled
No
kalshi

The Expendables 4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$340
N/A
N/A
$340
Settled
No
kalshi

The Orphans

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
No
polymarket

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie A

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie B

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie C

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie D

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie E

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie H

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie I

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 28

Description

This event group predicts which movie will rank #2 on Netflix's US Top 10 Movies chart as of the update published on March 10, 2026. Both platforms are asking the same core question but with different market structures: Kalshi offers 10 binary Yes/No markets for specific movies, while Polymarket offers 19 binary markets covering named movies plus an 'other' catch-all option.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Market scope divergence: Kalshi defines a closed set of 10 movies with no explicit 'other' outcome, while Polymarket includes an explicit 'other' option and additional movies, creating potential for conflicting resolutions if the #2 movie falls outside Kalshi's list.Hero tip: Monitor the actual Netflix Top 10 update on March 10, 2026. If the #2 movie is not on Kalshi's 10-movie list, all Kalshi markets resolve No while Polymarket's 'other' resolves Yes—a guaranteed arbitrage. If the #2 movie IS on both lists, both platforms should converge on the same movie.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 10 binary Yes/No markets for specific movies. Resolution rule: If [Movie] is #2 on Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published Mar 10, 2026, then Yes. No explicit 'other' or 'No' outcome defined. Implicit assumption: if none of the 10 movies is #2, all markets resolve No (or are ambiguous).
  • Polymarket: 19 binary markets: 18 for specific movies/placeholders (including Nuremberg, War Machine, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, and Movie A-K variables) plus 1 explicit 'other' catch-all. Explicit fallback: if top10.netflix.com does not update by March 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolves to 'Other'. Scope includes movies not on Kalshi's list.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.