TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
Volume:
$41,515
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group predicts which movie will rank #2 on Netflix's US Top 10 Movies chart as of the update published on March 10, 2026. Both platforms are asking the same core question but with different market structures: Kalshi offers 10 binary Yes/No markets for specific movies, while Polymarket offers 19 binary markets covering named movies plus an 'other' catch-all option.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Market scope divergence: Kalshi defines a closed set of 10 movies with no explicit 'other' outcome, while Polymarket includes an explicit 'other' option and additional movies, creating potential for conflicting resolutions if the #2 movie falls outside Kalshi's list.Hero Tip:
Monitor the actual Netflix Top 10 update on March 10, 2026. If the #2 movie is not on Kalshi's 10-movie list, all Kalshi markets resolve No while Polymarket's 'other' resolves Yes—a guaranteed arbitrage. If the #2 movie IS on both lists, both platforms should converge on the same movie.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 10 binary Yes/No markets for specific movies. Resolution rule: If [Movie] is #2 on Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published Mar 10, 2026, then Yes. No explicit 'other' or 'No' outcome defined. Implicit assumption: if none of the 10 movies is #2, all markets resolve No (or are ambiguous).
- Polymarket: 19 binary markets: 18 for specific movies/placeholders (including Nuremberg, War Machine, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, and Movie A-K variables) plus 1 explicit 'other' catch-all. Explicit fallback: if top10.netflix.com does not update by March 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolves to 'Other'. Scope includes movies not on Kalshi's list.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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