TOTAL VOLUME:

$54.4b

24H VOL:

$218,201,443

24H TRANSACTIONS:

527,797,601

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,191,873,651

500,842

Markets across

13,663

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,809

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

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What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

Volume:
$27,349
Outcome
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7d
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Result
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Description

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 Movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 Netflix movie in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on the identical Netflix official ranking published on April 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, with no conflicting thresholds, timing, or data sources.

Primary resolution logic:

Netflix official Top 10 Movies ranking published on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting US viewership from the prior week

Core resolution logic:

  • Identify which movie occupies the #2 position on Netflix's Top 10 US Movies chart as published on April 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
  • Kalshi: Market resolves YES if the specified movie (KPop Demon Hunters, 180, Halloween Ends, Thrash, Roommates, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Untold: Jail Blazers, Husband Father Killer, The Requin, Nobody Dumps My Daughter, or Apex) is ranked #2
  • Polymarket: Each binary market resolves YES if its specified movie is ranked #2; the catch-all 'another movie' market resolves YES if none of the named candidates occupy #2
  • Ranking is based on total views in the United States as reported by Netflix for movies

Edge cases & Clarifications:

  • Netflix update failure or delay: If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket explicitly resolves to Other. Kalshi's resolution mechanism for this scenario is not specified in the source data; auditor recommends clarification from Kalshi on fallback rules.
  • Tie or co-ranking at #2: Netflix's official methodology determines a single #2 ranking; if Netflix reports a tie, resolution follows Netflix's published tie-breaking rule or display order on top10.netflix.com.
  • Movie not released or removed: If a specified movie is not available on Netflix or is removed before April 28, 2026, it cannot occupy #2 and those markets resolve NO.
  • Polymarket catch-all market: The 'another movie' market on Polymarket resolves YES only if the #2 movie is not one of the 22 named candidates (Roommates, Untold: The Shooting at Hawthorne Hill, The Requin, Apex, Thrash, Husband Father Killer, 180, and others listed).

Timing:

Resolution occurs on April 28, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes its official Top 10 Movies chart; if not published by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to Other and Kalshi's resolution is unclear.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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