TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Roommates
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Apr 28, 2026
Closed: Apr 28, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 Movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 Netflix movie in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on the identical Netflix official ranking published on April 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, with no conflicting thresholds, timing, or data sources.Primary resolution logic: Netflix official Top 10 Movies ranking published on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting US viewership from the prior weekCore resolution logic:
- Identify which movie occupies the #2 position on Netflix's Top 10 US Movies chart as published on April 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
- Kalshi: Market resolves YES if the specified movie (KPop Demon Hunters, 180, Halloween Ends, Thrash, Roommates, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Untold: Jail Blazers, Husband Father Killer, The Requin, Nobody Dumps My Daughter, or Apex) is ranked #2
- Polymarket: Each binary market resolves YES if its specified movie is ranked #2; the catch-all 'another movie' market resolves YES if none of the named candidates occupy #2
- Ranking is based on total views in the United States as reported by Netflix for movies
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Netflix update failure or delay: If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket explicitly resolves to Other. Kalshi's resolution mechanism for this scenario is not specified in the source data; auditor recommends clarification from Kalshi on fallback rules.
- Tie or co-ranking at #2: Netflix's official methodology determines a single #2 ranking; if Netflix reports a tie, resolution follows Netflix's published tie-breaking rule or display order on top10.netflix.com.
- Movie not released or removed: If a specified movie is not available on Netflix or is removed before April 28, 2026, it cannot occupy #2 and those markets resolve NO.
- Polymarket catch-all market: The 'another movie' market on Polymarket resolves YES only if the #2 movie is not one of the 22 named candidates (Roommates, Untold: The Shooting at Hawthorne Hill, The Requin, Apex, Thrash, Husband Father Killer, 180, and others listed).