This event group asks which movie will rank #2 on Netflix's US Top 10 Movies chart for the week ending February 17, 2026. Both platforms are betting on the same underlying resolution event: Netflix's official ranking published on February 17, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET, based on total US viewership data.
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms resolve against the same official Netflix Top 10 ranking published February 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, with identical outcome logic and a consistent fallback rule for non-publication.
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix official Top 10 Movies ranking at top10.netflix.com, updated February 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting US viewership data from the prior week (Monday to Sunday).
Core resolution logic:
Resolution is determined by which movie Netflix officially ranks as #2 on its US Top 10 Movies chart on February 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET.
Ranking is based on total views in the United States as reported by Netflix for movies.
The outcome is mutually exclusive: exactly one movie will occupy the #2 position.
Kalshi lists 12 named movies (Joe's College Road Trip, The Rip, Night at the Museum, Independence Day, Homefront, Faith in the Flames: The Nichole Jolly Story, Copshop, How to Train Your Dragon, The Investigation of Lucy Letby, Terry McMillan Presents: Forever, Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates, KPop Demon Hunters).
Polymarket includes the same named titles plus placeholder options (Movie A through Movie K) and an "other" catch-all for any movie not explicitly listed.
If Netflix does not publish the update by February 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" (Polymarket) or remains unresolved (Kalshi).
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Non-publication or delay: If Netflix does not update its Top 10 ranking by February 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to "Other". Kalshi does not explicitly define a fallback, creating a minor procedural gap.
Tie or co-ranking: Netflix's official ranking is deterministic and does not publish ties. The #2 position is singular and unambiguous.
Movie title variations: Kalshi uses full titles (e.g., 'Joe's College Road Trip'); Polymarket uses 'Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip'. Both refer to the same film. Resolution depends on Netflix's official title on the chart.
Placeholder movie codes: Polymarket includes Movie A-K as catch-all options. These resolve to Yes only if a movie not explicitly named occupies the #2 position and matches Netflix's official listing.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on February 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes its official Top 10 Movies ranking. If not published by February 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket defaults to "Other"; Kalshi's fallback is undefined.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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