TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week?
Volume:
$84,358
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, March 24, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi provides a closed list of 12 named shows with explicit resolution criteria, while Polymarket uses placeholder show names (Show A-K) and generic categories that lack concrete identification. This creates a fundamental data integrity failure: Polymarket's markets cannot be reliably resolved because the actual show identities are undefined, making it impossible to match outcomes against Netflix's official rankings.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Polymarket markets in this group. The placeholder naming scheme (Show A, Show B, etc.) means there is no way to verify which actual Netflix show each market refers to at settlement time. Kalshi's explicit show names (Age of Attraction, Virgin River: Season 7, etc.) are resolvable against Netflix's official Top 10 list. If you hold Polymarket positions, seek clarification on show identity before March 24, 2026, or face unresolvable ambiguity.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi uses a closed, named list of 12 specific shows (Age of Attraction: Season 1, The Dinosaurs: Season 1, Bridgerton: Season 4, Virgin River: Season 7, The TikTok Killer: Limited Series, Derrick Stroup: Nostalgic, A Friend, a Murderer: Limited Series, ONE PIECE: Season 2, Love Is Blind: The Reunion, Raw: 2026, Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man, BTS THE COMEBACK LIVE | ARIRANG) with explicit resolution criteria: 'If [named show] is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Mar 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' Each market resolves YES if its named show ranks exactly #2.
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket uses undefined placeholder identifiers (Show A through Show K, plus generic categories like 'another show') without specifying which actual Netflix shows these refer to. The description states 'This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix show' but does not map Show A, Show B, etc. to concrete show titles, creating an unresolvable ambiguity at settlement time. Only 5 of 20 markets name actual shows (Age of Attraction, Virgin River: Season 7, Unicorn Academy: Secrets Revealed, STEEL BALL RUN JoJo's Bizarre Adventure, The Dinosaurs, Mark Normand: None Too Pleased, One Piece: Season 2); the remaining 15 use undefined placeholders.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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