TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week?
Volume:
$22,764
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group predicts which show will rank #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 TV shows list as published on March 10, 2026. Both platforms are betting on the same underlying fact: Netflix's official ranking for that specific date. The resolution depends entirely on Netflix's published data for total global views.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms measure the identical outcome: which show Netflix officially ranks as #2 globally on March 10, 2026, based on total views for TV shows in English only.
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix Top 10 Global TV Shows list (top10.netflix.com) published March 10, 2026, 3:00 PM ETCore resolution logic:
- Resolution date is fixed: March 10, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
- Ranking metric: Total global views for TV shows (English language only)
- The show ranked in position #2 on that specific Netflix update resolves all YES outcomes for that show
- All other shows resolve NO
- Kalshi offers 11 named show outcomes; Polymarket offers 14 named show outcomes plus 1 'Other' catch-all
- If multiple markets name the same show, only that show's market resolves YES
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- No update by deadline: Polymarket explicitly resolves to 'Other' if top10.netflix.com does not publish by March 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi does not state a fallback; assume cancellation or 'Other' equivalent.
- Show not on Top 10 list: If a named show does not appear in the Top 10 at all, that outcome resolves NO. The 'Other' option on Polymarket would resolve YES only if the #2 show is not among the 14 named options.
- Tie for #2 position: Netflix's official ranking is deterministic; ties are not expected. If Netflix lists two shows as tied for #2, both would resolve YES (unlikely but not ruled out by either platform).
- Platform outcome mismatch: Kalshi lists 11 specific shows; Polymarket lists 14 specific shows plus 'Other'. If the #2 show is named on both platforms, both resolve YES for that show. If #2 is only on one platform's list, only that platform's market resolves YES.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on March 10, 2026, 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes its Top 10 Global TV Shows list. Markets settle immediately upon confirmation of the #2 ranked show. Fallback deadline for Polymarket: March 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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