TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
The Night Agent: Season 3
- Kalshi
The Night Agent: Season 3 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Mar 4, 2026
Closed: Mar 3, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model: Season 1
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$172
N/A
N/A
$172
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 28
Description
This event group predicts which Netflix show will rank #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 TV shows list as published on March 3, 2026. Both platforms reference the same official Netflix ranking source and resolution date, with Kalshi listing 10 specific shows as YES outcomes and Polymarket offering binary markets on individual shows plus an 'Other' catch-all.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use the same official Netflix Top 10 ranking published March 3, 2026 as the single source of truth, with identical scope (English TV shows, global views) and timing.Primary resolution logic: Netflix official Top 10 Global TV Shows list published on top10.netflix.com on March 3, 2026 at 3:00 PM ETCore resolution logic:
- Resolution is determined by which show Netflix ranks in the #2 position on the official Top 10 Global TV Shows chart published March 3, 2026
- The ranking reflects total views globally for English-language TV shows only during the prior week (Monday Feb 24 through Sunday Mar 2, 2026)
- On Kalshi, if any of the 10 listed shows (Famous Last Words, The Lincoln Lawyer S4, The Night Agent S3, The Hunting Party S1, Sommore: Chandelier Fly, Katt Williams: The Last Report, Raw 2026, Love Is Blind Ohio, Reality Check ANTM S1, or Bridgerton S4) ranks #2, that market resolves YES
- On Polymarket, exactly one binary market resolves YES based on which show actually ranks #2; if none of the named shows rank #2, the 'Other' market resolves YES
- Ties are not addressed by either platform; Netflix's official ranking is treated as definitive and non-tied
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Netflix update delay or failure: Polymarket specifies that if top10.netflix.com does not update by March 6, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'. Kalshi does not specify a fallback resolution mechanism and would require manual adjudication.
- Show not in top 10: If a show listed on either platform does not appear in Netflix's top 10 at all, it cannot be #2 and those markets resolve NO (Kalshi) or do not resolve YES (Polymarket).
- Polymarket 'Other' outcome: Polymarket includes a catch-all 'Other' market that resolves YES if the #2 show is not one of the 11 specifically named shows (Reality Check ANTM, The Lincoln Lawyer S4, Love is Blind Ohio, Bridgerton S4, The Night Agent S3, Jeffrey Epstein: Filthy Rich, or the generic Show A-K placeholders).
- Generic show placeholders on Polymarket: Polymarket includes markets for 'Show A' through 'Show K' without defining what these shows are. These appear to be template placeholders and cannot be resolved without clarification of the actual show titles.