TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
Volume:
$28,690
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group predicts which movie will rank #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 movies chart for the week ending April 14, 2026. Both platforms resolve based on Netflix's official ranking published on April 14, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET, measuring total global views for English-language movies only.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi defines a closed set of 11 candidate movies with no explicit catch-all, while Polymarket provides 21 individual candidates plus an "Other" option and a defined fallback ("Other" if Netflix update is delayed past April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). This creates resolution ambiguity if the actual #2 movie falls outside Kalshi's candidate list.Hero Tip:
Before settlement, cross-check the actual #2 movie against Kalshi's 11-movie list. If it matches, both platforms resolve consistently. If it does not match, Kalshi's resolution is undefined (likely NO to all options), while Polymarket resolves YES to "another movie" or "Other" depending on timing. Polymarket's explicit grace period and catch-all make it the more robust market for edge cases.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Closed-set resolution: YES if any of 11 named movies rank #2 on Netflix Top 10 Global Movie chart published April 14, 2026. No explicit catch-all or fallback if the actual #2 movie is not in the list. Quote: 'If [movie name] is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Movie on the chart published on Apr 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Open-set resolution with catch-all: 21 individual YES/NO questions for named movies, plus a catch-all 'Will another movie be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?' option. Explicit fallback: if Netflix update does not occur by April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, market resolves to 'Other'. Quote: 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to Other.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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