TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
Volume:
$177,476
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group predicts which movie will rank #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 movies list for the week ending March 16, 2026, based on the official update published on March 17, 2026. Both platforms resolve against the same Netflix official data source and publication date, with Polymarket offering a catch-all 'Other' option and Kalshi listing specific movie candidates.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical resolution criteria: the movie ranked #2 on Netflix's official Global Top 10 Movies chart published on March 17, 2026, based on total global views for English-language movies only.
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix official Global Top 10 Movies list published on top10.netflix.com on March 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ETCore resolution logic:
- Resolution is determined by the Netflix Global Top 10 Movies ranking published on March 17, 2026
- The ranking reflects viewership data from the prior week (Monday March 10 through Sunday March 16, 2026)
- Only English-language movies are included in the ranking
- The movie in the #2 position on that official list is the resolution outcome
- Exactly one movie will resolve to YES; all others resolve to NO
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Update Failure: If Netflix does not publish the update by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 'Other'. Kalshi's resolution mechanism for this scenario is not explicitly stated in the source data.
- Movie Title Variations: Kalshi lists specific movie titles (e.g., 'Jurassic World Rebirth', 'War Machine', 'KPop Demon Hunters') while Polymarket uses placeholder names (Movie A-K) and specific titles. Resolution matches the exact title as it appears on the Netflix official list.
- Catch-All Option: Polymarket includes 'Will another movie be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?' as a catch-all for any movie not explicitly listed. Kalshi does not include a catch-all option.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on March 17, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes the official Global Top 10 Movies list. If not published by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 'Other'.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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