TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What price will Hyperliquid hit in May?
Total volume:
$299,219
Volume 24h:
$9,855
78%
Liquidity:
$37,792
14%
Open interest:
$44,034
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Hyperliquid (HYPE) will reach or dip to specific price levels during May 2026. Kalshi markets use a binary Yes/No framework based on whether the price ever goes below specified thresholds, while Polymarket markets ask directional questions about reaching highs or dipping to lows using Binance 1-minute candle data.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket diverge on price source (unspecified vs. Binance futures), resolution logic (inverted threshold vs. directional), and threshold precision. Both cover May 2026 but use different market structures and data feeds.Hero Tip:
Lock in your understanding of which price feed each platform uses before May begins. Kalshi's source ambiguity creates basis risk. If you trade both platforms, monitor Binance futures prices as the Polymarket anchor and cross-check against Kalshi's actual settlement feed once it is published.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Eight binary Yes/No markets. Resolves Yes if HYPE ever trades below specified thresholds ($22.50, $25.00, $27.50, $30.00, $32.50, $35.00, $37.50, $40.00) at any point from issuance through 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026. Price source not specified. Key quote: 'If the price of HYPE after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026 is ever below [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Nine directional markets using Binance HYPEUSDT futures 1-minute candles. Four markets ask if HYPE will reach highs ($48, $44, $52); five ask if it will dip to lows ($32, $38, $28, $24). Resolves Yes if any 1-minute candle High (for reach) or Low (for dip) equals or crosses the threshold during May 1–31, 2026, 00:00–23:59 ET. Key quote: 'resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the HYPEUSDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/futures/HYPEUSDT, with the chart settings on 1m for one-minute candles selected.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.