TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What price will Bitcoin hit in March?
Volume:
$101,604,832
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
These markets collectively assess whether Bitcoin will reach or dip to specific price levels during March 2026, using Binance BTC/USDT as the authoritative price feed. The markets span a wide range from $20,000 to $150,000, allowing traders to express granular views on Bitcoin's volatility and directional movement during the month.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi diverge on resolution source and scope. Polymarket uses Binance 1-minute candle High/Low prices as the exclusive resolution source, while Kalshi uses a broader 'price of BTC' reference without specifying exchange or timeframe granularity, creating potential for different outcomes if prices differ across venues or timeframes.Hero Tip:
If you trade these markets across both platforms, be aware that a price movement on Binance 1-minute candles may not match Kalshi's resolution if Kalshi's source (likely a broader index or different exchange) shows a different price at the same moment. Lock in your positions on the platform with the most favorable odds, but understand the settlement may diverge.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based exclusively on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle High prices (for upside targets) or Low prices (for downside targets), with strict temporal scope from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last day of March. Key quote: 'The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on 1m for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on 'the price of BTC' with no specified exchange, timeframe granularity, or data source, only a temporal scope through 11:59 PM ET on Mar 31, 2026. Key quote: 'If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Mar 31, 2026 is ever above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.