A college basketball game between Wagner Seahawks and LIU Sharks scheduled for February 16, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. Markets cover moneyline (winner), multiple spread variations, and total points over/under thresholds.
Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction where both possible outcomes (Wagner win and LIU win) are mapped to the same resolution (Yes), making the market fundamentally unresolvable. This is a data integrity failure that prevents settlement.
Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market in its current form. The Polymarket moneyline and spread markets are logically sound and should be used as the authoritative resolution source. Request clarification from Kalshi before settlement.
Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket: Moneyline resolves to Wagner Seahawks if Wagner wins, or LIU Sharks if LIU wins. Spreads resolve based on margin thresholds (LIU -9.5 requires 10+ point win; LIU -11.5 requires 12+ point win). Totals resolve Over if combined score meets or exceeds threshold (137+ for 136.5 line, 138+ for 137.5 line). Postponement keeps market open; cancellation resolves 50-50. Final score includes overtime.
Kalshi: Market states both outcomes resolve to Yes: 'If Wagner wins...resolve to Yes' and 'If LIU wins...resolve to Yes'. This creates a logical impossibility where every possible game outcome produces identical resolution, making the market unresolvable. No handling of postponement or cancellation specified.
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