TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus
Volume:
$362,244
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming J1 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for Saturday, April 11, 2026 between Vissel Kōbe and Nagoya Grampus.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution structures for the same match. Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets (Kobe win, Draw, Nagoya win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi presents three separate YES/NO markets that can all resolve YES simultaneously, creating logical contradiction and impossible settlement outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across these platforms assuming equivalent hedging. On Polymarket, buying YES on all three outcomes guarantees a loss (exactly one wins). On Kalshi, all three markets can resolve YES at once, making the platform's structure internally consistent but incompatible with Polymarket's mutually exclusive design. Clarify with each platform's support which structure governs your position before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket structures the match as three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one outcome (Kobe win, Draw, or Nagoya win) resolves YES and the other two resolve NO. The Draw market uniquely resolves YES if the game is canceled with no make-up, creating an asymmetry. Resolution source is official J-League statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion, covering only 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi presents three separate YES/NO markets, each capable of independent YES resolution: 'Kobe wins = Yes', 'Nagoya wins = Yes', and 'Tie wins = Yes'. All three markets can logically resolve YES simultaneously if the match ends in a draw (both Tie market and either Kobe or Nagoya market would resolve YES), violating mutual exclusivity. No cancellation clause is specified, and resolution covers only 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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