TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers
Volume:
$2,657,085
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a men's college basketball game between the Vermont Catamounts and UMBC Retrievers scheduled for February 19, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET. Markets include moneyline (winner), point spread (-1.5 Vermont), and total points (O/U 141.5).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi moneyline contains a logical contradiction where both possible outcomes (UMBC win and Vermont win) are stated to resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket moneyline is logically sound.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi moneyline - it cannot be settled correctly. Use Polymarket moneyline for winner bets. Spread and total markets are consistent across both platforms and safe to trade.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Moneyline market contains internal contradiction: 'If UMBC wins... resolves to Yes' AND 'If Vermont wins... resolves to Yes'. This violates binary logic and makes settlement impossible. Key Quote: Both outcomes explicitly map to Yes.
- Polymarket: Moneyline resolves to Vermont Catamounts or UMBC Retrievers based on winner - standard binary logic. Spread resolves based on margin (Vermont -1.5). Total resolves Over/Under 141.5. All three markets handle postponement (remain open) and cancellation (50-50) consistently. Key Quote: 'If the Vermont Catamounts win, the market will resolve to Vermont Catamounts. If the UMBC Retrievers win, the market will resolve to UMBC Retrievers.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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