TOTAL VOLUME:

$54.6b

24H VOL:

$283,259,638

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,235,549,422

505,521

Markets across

13,661

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,892

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

BETA
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kalshi
polymarket
Trending

Valorant: Trace Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega

Volume:
$116,271
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade

Description

This market refers to the Valorant match between Trace Esports and XLG Gaming in the VCT China Group Omega, initially scheduled for April 5 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Trace Esports" if Trace Esports win the match against XLG Gaming. This market will resolve to "XLG Gaming" if XLG Gaming win the match against Trace Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue:

Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves on whether either team wins the entire VCT China 2026 tournament (always YES regardless of match outcome), while Polymarket resolves on specific match outcomes (series length, map handicaps, individual map winners, and head-to-head result). These are logically incompatible settlement bases.

Hero Tip:

Do not treat these markets as hedges or correlated bets. Kalshi's markets will resolve YES if either team wins VCT China 2026, making them tournament-outcome bets, not match-outcome bets. Polymarket's markets resolve on the actual April 5 match result. Betting YES on Kalshi does not correlate with betting on either team on Polymarket.

Critical Divergence Points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on tournament outcome, not match outcome. Both Kalshi markets (XLG wins VCT China 2026 OR Trace wins VCT China 2026) resolve to YES regardless of the April 5 match result, because exactly one of these two teams will win the tournament. The resolution logic is 'If [team] wins the VCT China 2026: [team] vs. [opponent] match...then the market resolves to Yes.' This conflates tournament victory with match victory and makes both markets tautologically YES.
  • Polymarket: Aligned with match-outcome resolution: Resolves based on actual April 5 match performance (series length, map differential, individual map winners, head-to-head result). Each market has distinct thresholds: Games Total O/U 2.5 (3+ maps = Over), Map Handicap XLG (-1.5) (XLG wins by 2+ maps = XLG), Map 1/2 Winners (individual map outcomes), and Match Winner (head-to-head). All reference vlr.gg as primary source and include 7-day delay and forfeit/disqualification rules. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Over if Trace Esports and XLG Gaming play 3 or more maps in this series.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.