TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Valorant: Trace Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega
kalshi
polymarket

Valorant: Trace Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega

Volume:
$116,271

XLG Gaming

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 5, 2026

Closed: Apr 5, 9:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

XLG Gaming

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,499
N/A
N/A
$10,926
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Match Winner

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$63,460
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Map 1 Winner

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,262
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Games

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$626
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Trace Esports

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,183
N/A
N/A
$8,996
Settled
No
polymarket

Map 2 Winner

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,019
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Trace Esports (+1.5)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,156
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Map Handicap: TE (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$66
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This market refers to the Valorant match between Trace Esports and XLG Gaming in the VCT China Group Omega, initially scheduled for April 5 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Trace Esports" if Trace Esports win the match against XLG Gaming. This market will resolve to "XLG Gaming" if XLG Gaming win the match against Trace Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves on whether either team wins the entire VCT China 2026 tournament (always YES regardless of match outcome), while Polymarket resolves on specific match outcomes (series length, map handicaps, individual map winners, and head-to-head result). These are logically incompatible settlement bases.Hero tip: Do not treat these markets as hedges or correlated bets. Kalshi's markets will resolve YES if either team wins VCT China 2026, making them tournament-outcome bets, not match-outcome bets. Polymarket's markets resolve on the actual April 5 match result. Betting YES on Kalshi does not correlate with betting on either team on Polymarket.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on tournament outcome, not match outcome. Both Kalshi markets (XLG wins VCT China 2026 OR Trace wins VCT China 2026) resolve to YES regardless of the April 5 match result, because exactly one of these two teams will win the tournament. The resolution logic is 'If [team] wins the VCT China 2026: [team] vs. [opponent] match...then the market resolves to Yes.' This conflates tournament victory with match victory and makes both markets tautologically YES.
  • Polymarket: Aligned with match-outcome resolution: Resolves based on actual April 5 match performance (series length, map differential, individual map winners, head-to-head result). Each market has distinct thresholds: Games Total O/U 2.5 (3+ maps = Over), Map Handicap XLG (-1.5) (XLG wins by 2+ maps = XLG), Map 1/2 Winners (individual map outcomes), and Match Winner (head-to-head). All reference vlr.gg as primary source and include 7-day delay and forfeit/disqualification rules. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Over if Trace Esports and XLG Gaming play 3 or more maps in this series.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.