TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Valorant: Nova Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega
Description
This market refers to the Valorant match between Nova Esports and EDward Gaming in the VCT China Group Omega, initially scheduled for March 31 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nova Esports" if Nova Esports win the match against EDward Gaming. This market will resolve to "EDward Gaming" if EDward Gaming win the match against Nova Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves on a binary outcome (match winner only, with both teams triggering YES), while Polymarket offers three distinct markets with different resolution criteria: match winner, map handicap, and individual map outcomes. Kalshi's logic is fundamentally incompatible with Polymarket's granular market structure.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's market resolves YES regardless of which team wins the match, making it a certainty bet on match completion rather than a directional bet. Polymarket's markets are directional: bet on Nova Esports or EDward Gaming to win, or on specific map outcomes. Do not treat Kalshi as a hedge for Polymarket positions.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's single market resolves YES if either Nova Esports OR EDward Gaming wins the match, with no differentiation between outcomes. The market states 'If Nova Esports wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If EDward Gaming wins... then the market resolves to Yes,' meaning the market is a binary bet on match completion, not on a specific team outcome.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers four separate directional markets: (1) Match Winner (Nova Esports vs EDward Gaming), (2) Map Handicap (EDG -1.5 vs Nova +1.5), (3) Map 1 Winner, (4) Map 2 Winner, and (5) Games Total O/U 2.5. Each market resolves to a specific team or outcome based on match results, not on match completion alone. For example, 'This market will resolve to Nova Esports if Nova Esports win the match' and 'This market will resolve to EDward Gaming if EDward Gaming win the match.'
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.