TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Valencia CF vs. Deportivo Alavés
Volume:
$1,237,686
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the La Liga soccer match between Valencia CF and Deportivo Alavés scheduled for March 8, 2026. Markets track three mutually exclusive outcomes: Valencia win, Alavés win, or draw, all evaluated at 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi frames three mutually exclusive outcomes as separate binary markets all resolving to Yes, creating logical ambiguity. Polymarket correctly partitions outcomes into three independent Yes/No markets. Both platforms agree on match scope (90 min + stoppage, no extra time/penalties) and resolution source (official La Liga statistics), but Kalshi's market structure is internally contradictory.Hero Tip:
On Polymarket, treat the three markets as a coherent outcome partition: exactly one resolves Yes. On Kalshi, clarify with the platform whether only the actual outcome resolves Yes and the others resolve No, or if there is a different settlement mechanism. Both platforms agree on postponement (remain open) and cancellation (Polymarket: No for win/loss markets, Yes for draw market; Kalshi: unclear but likely No for all). Prioritize Polymarket's clearer structure for position sizing.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Three binary markets presented as independent: (1) Valencia wins → Yes, (2) Alavés wins → Yes, (3) Tie → Yes. All three cannot simultaneously resolve to Yes. Quote: 'If Valencia wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Alaves wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' This structure is logically impossible for a single match outcome.
- Polymarket: Three mutually exclusive markets properly partition outcomes: (1) Valencia CF Win → Yes/No, (2) Draw → Yes/No, (3) Alavés Win → Yes/No. Exactly one resolves Yes. Quote: 'If Valencia CF wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.' Clear mutual exclusivity and cancellation rules provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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