TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Avispa Fukuoka
Volume:
$178,273
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Japan J1 League soccer match between V-Varen Nagasaki and Avispa Fukuoka scheduled for March 15, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket track three mutually exclusive outcomes: V-Varen win, Avispa win, or draw, all measured at the conclusion of 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents three binary markets that each resolve to Yes for mutually exclusive outcomes, creating structural ambiguity about simultaneous resolution. Polymarket uses standard binary Yes/No logic for each outcome, which is logically consistent.Hero Tip:
For settlement purposes, treat the three outcomes as mutually exclusive: exactly one will occur. Polymarket's Yes/No framework is clearer. If trading Kalshi, confirm whether all three markets resolve Yes for their respective outcomes or if only one market per match resolves Yes. Both platforms agree on the core event (match result at 90+stoppage), so the divergence is mechanical, not substantive.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Three separate binary markets, each resolving to Yes for a different outcome (Tie, V-Varen win, Avispa win). The structure implies all three could resolve Yes, but only one outcome is possible. Quote: 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If V-Varen wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Avispa wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with explicit Yes/No outcomes. Draw market resolves Yes if draw, No otherwise. V-Varen market resolves Yes if V-Varen wins, No otherwise. Avispa market resolves Yes if Avispa wins, No otherwise. Exactly one resolves Yes. Quote: 'If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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