TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909
Volume:
$766,068
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
US Cremonese and Bologna FC 1909 will compete in a Serie A match scheduled for April 5, 2026. The outcome will be determined by the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. This is a standard three-way outcome event (Cremonese win, Bologna win, or draw).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Cremonese win, draw, Bologna win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines three independent YES/NO markets that all resolve YES simultaneously for any match outcome, creating a logical contradiction.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across both platforms assuming equivalent exposure. On Polymarket, buying all three outcomes is impossible (only one wins). On Kalshi, all three markets resolve YES regardless of result, making them non-discriminatory bets on match completion rather than outcome prediction. Clarify with each platform whether Kalshi's structure is intentional before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket structures the event as three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one outcome (Cremonese win, draw, or Bologna win) resolves YES and the other two resolve NO. The resolution source is official Serie A statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion. Quote: 'If US Cremonese wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (applied identically to all three outcome markets).
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi defines three independent markets, each resolving YES if its named outcome occurs, but the logical structure implies all three resolve YES for any match result (win for either team or tie), making outcome discrimination impossible. Quote: 'If Bologna wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Cremonese wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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