TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UMBC Retrievers vs. Vermont Catamounts (W)
Volume:
$117,190
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a women's college basketball game between UMBC Retrievers and Vermont Catamounts scheduled for February 19, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET. Markets across platforms are betting on which team will win the game, with resolution based on the final score including overtime.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution criteria is logically impossible: both a Vermont win and a UMBC win are specified to resolve to Yes, violating binary game logic. This makes the market fundamentally unresolvable and creates irreconcilable settlement risk.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi contracts for this event. The resolution rules contain a logical contradiction that will cause settlement disputes. Polymarket's binary structure (UMBC Retrievers vs Vermont Catamounts) is the only resolvable framework. If you hold Kalshi positions, prepare for potential forced resolution or litigation.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary winner-take-all structure. UMBC victory resolves to 'UMBC Retrievers'; Vermont victory resolves to 'Vermont Catamounts'. Postponement extends market; cancellation without makeup resolves 50-50. Key Quote: 'If the UMBC Retrievers win, the market will resolve to UMBC Retrievers. If the Vermont Catamounts win, the market will resolve to Vermont Catamounts.'
- Kalshi: Both outcomes specified to resolve Yes. 'If Vermont wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If UMBC wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' This is logically contradictory—only one team can win, yet both winning conditions map to the same resolution state. Key Quote: 'If Vermont wins the UMBC at Vermont women's college basketball game...then the market resolves to Yes. If UMBC wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.