TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)
Volume:
$1,765,274
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Virna Jandiroba and Tabatha Ricci will compete in a women's strawweight bout at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan on April 4, 2026. Markets cover fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), duration thresholds (rounds), and distance completion. All resolution depends on official UFC declaration of the fight result.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket provides comprehensive, outcome-specific resolution rules for six distinct markets (KO/TKO, Submission, Round Thresholds, Distance, and Head-to-Head), while Kalshi offers only two binary YES/NO markets that resolve identically regardless of fight outcome (either fighter winning triggers YES). This creates a fundamental logical contradiction: Kalshi's markets cannot distinguish between different resolution scenarios that Polymarket explicitly addresses.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-trade between these platforms. Polymarket markets are outcome-specific and mutually exclusive (e.g., only one of 'Jandiroba KO/TKO' or 'Ricci KO/TKO' can resolve YES). Kalshi's two markets both resolve YES if either fighter wins, making them redundant and unsuitable for directional betting. If you hold Kalshi positions, understand that they provide no granularity on fight method or duration—only confirmation that the fight occurred and produced a winner.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers six mutually exclusive, outcome-specific markets covering fight method (KO/TKO, Submission), duration (Over/Under 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 Rounds), distance completion, and head-to-head winner selection. Each market has independent resolution criteria tied to specific fight outcomes. For example, 'Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?' resolves YES only if the fight ends by KO/TKO/stoppage, and NO if it ends by submission, decision, or draw. 'O/U 2.5 Rounds' resolves Over if the fight continues past 2:30 of Round 3, Under if it ends before that threshold. All markets reference 'official information from the UFC' as the resolution source.
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi provides two binary markets that both resolve YES if either fighter wins the bout. Market 1 states 'If Tabatha Ricci wins...then the market resolves to Yes' and Market 2 states 'If Virna Jandiroba wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' Neither market specifies what happens if the fight ends in a draw, no-contest, or cancellation. Both markets collapse all possible fight outcomes (KO, submission, decision, draw) into a single YES/NO binary, with no differentiation by method or duration.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.