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UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$1,086,640

Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 5, 2026

Closed: Apr 4, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$297,401
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Thomas Petersen

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$250,072
N/A
N/A
$206,509
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,058
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$166
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$156
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$156
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Guilherme Pat

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$521,767
N/A
N/A
$417,151
Settled
No
polymarket

Pat to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,099
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$336
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Petersen to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$319
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$111
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

Thomas Petersen and Guilherme Pat are scheduled to compete in a heavyweight preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan on April 4, 2026. The markets assess the fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), and fight duration (rounds completed). All resolution determinations are based on official UFC records and declarations.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution rules are logically contradictory and unresolvable. Kalshi states that the market resolves YES if either fighter wins, which means the market resolves YES for all possible outcomes (both Petersen winning and Pat winning trigger YES). Polymarket correctly structures the market as a categorical outcome (winner selection) with defined resolution paths for draws, no contests, and postponements. This makes Kalshi's market fundamentally broken while Polymarket's market is sound.Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi market for this fight group. Kalshi's resolution logic guarantees YES regardless of fight outcome, making it impossible to lose. Polymarket's markets are properly structured and resolvable. Trade only on Polymarket for reliable settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's rules state 'If Guilherme Pat wins... resolves to Yes' AND 'If Thomas Petersen wins... resolves to Yes,' creating a logical contradiction where the market resolves YES for all possible fight outcomes. This makes the market unresolvable and creates arbitrage vulnerability.
  • Polymarket: Aligned with sound categorical logic: Polymarket structures the market as a three-outcome categorical (Thomas Petersen wins, Guilherme Pat wins, or 50-50 for draw/no contest/postponement beyond April 18, 2026). Each outcome is mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, with clear resolution criteria: 'This market will resolve to Thomas Petersen if Thomas Petersen is officially declared the winner' and 'It will resolve to Guilherme Pat if Guilherme Pat is officially declared the winner.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.