TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$1,086,640
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Thomas Petersen and Guilherme Pat are scheduled to compete in a heavyweight preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan on April 4, 2026. The markets assess the fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), and fight duration (rounds completed). All resolution determinations are based on official UFC records and declarations.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution rules are logically contradictory and unresolvable. Kalshi states that the market resolves YES if either fighter wins, which means the market resolves YES for all possible outcomes (both Petersen winning and Pat winning trigger YES). Polymarket correctly structures the market as a categorical outcome (winner selection) with defined resolution paths for draws, no contests, and postponements. This makes Kalshi's market fundamentally broken while Polymarket's market is sound.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market for this fight group. Kalshi's resolution logic guarantees YES regardless of fight outcome, making it impossible to lose. Polymarket's markets are properly structured and resolvable. Trade only on Polymarket for reliable settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's rules state 'If Guilherme Pat wins... resolves to Yes' AND 'If Thomas Petersen wins... resolves to Yes,' creating a logical contradiction where the market resolves YES for all possible fight outcomes. This makes the market unresolvable and creates arbitrage vulnerability.
- Polymarket: Aligned with sound categorical logic: Polymarket structures the market as a three-outcome categorical (Thomas Petersen wins, Guilherme Pat wins, or 50-50 for draw/no contest/postponement beyond April 18, 2026). Each outcome is mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, with clear resolution criteria: 'This market will resolve to Thomas Petersen if Thomas Petersen is officially declared the winner' and 'It will resolve to Guilherme Pat if Guilherme Pat is officially declared the winner.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.