TOTAL VOLUME:

$54.6b

24H VOL:

$283,259,638

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,235,549,422

505,521

Markets across

13,661

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,892

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

BETA
Dashboards
kalshi
polymarket
Trending

UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$1,442,484
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade

Description

This market will resolve to "Ryan Spann" if Ryan Spann is officially declared the winner of the fight against Marcus Buchecha at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Marcus Buchecha" if Marcus Buchecha is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue:

Polymarket provides granular, outcome-specific resolution logic across multiple markets (winner, method of victory, round duration), while Kalshi's single market resolves YES if either fighter wins, creating a scope and specificity mismatch.

Hero Tip:

On Polymarket, you can bet on specific fight outcomes (e.g., Spann by KO, fight goes distance); on Kalshi, the market only confirms that one of the two fighters wins, offering no method or duration differentiation. Polymarket offers more trading precision; Kalshi is a simple binary on fight occurrence.

Critical Divergence Points:

  • Polymarket: Seven distinct markets covering: (1) Winner (Spann vs Buchecha), (2) Fight Distance (Yes/No), (3) Buchecha KO/TKO, (4) Spann KO/TKO, (5) Submission, (6) Any KO/TKO, (7) Round Over/Under thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5). Each has specific resolution criteria tied to method of victory or fight duration. Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marcus Buchecha defeats Ryan Spann...by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."'
  • Kalshi: Single binary market: resolves YES if either Marcus Buchecha OR Ryan Spann wins the fight scheduled for Apr 25, 2026. No differentiation by method of victory or round duration. Quote: 'If Marcus Buchecha wins the Buchecha vs Spann professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ryan Spann wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Follow the signals, not the noise

Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.

Company

Brand Kit

API & Data Licensing

Methodology

Help Center

Contact

Terms of Use

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.