TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$1,097,888
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Ricky Simon and Adrian Yanez will compete in a bantamweight preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer on March 28, 2026. Markets span winner determination, finish method (submission, KO/TKO, decision), and fight duration thresholds. All resolution sources reference official UFC records.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves on whether either fighter wins the Simon vs. Yanez fight (a tautology that always resolves YES if the fight occurs), while Polymarket resolves on specific fight outcomes (submission, KO/TKO, decision, round duration). This creates a logical contradiction: Kalshi's market cannot fail to resolve YES absent cancellation, whereas Polymarket's markets have mutually exclusive outcomes.Hero Tip:
Avoid betting on Kalshi's market as written—it resolves YES for any fight result (Simon wins OR Yanez wins), making it equivalent to betting on fight occurrence, not outcome. Polymarket's markets are standard fight-outcome bets. If you want directional exposure (Simon vs. Yanez), use Polymarket's head-to-head market instead.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's market resolves YES if 'Ricky Simon wins the Simon vs Yanez professional MMA fight' OR 'Adrian Yanez wins the Simon vs Yanez professional MMA fight.' This is a logical tautology—one of the two fighters must win (barring cancellation or no-contest), so the market always resolves YES. No resolution criteria for draw, no-contest, or cancellation are specified.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers six separate outcome-specific markets (submission, KO/TKO, decision/distance, round duration thresholds, and head-to-head winner). Each resolves to specific outcomes (YES/NO or fighter name) based on fight result, with explicit 50-50 resolution for cancellation, no-contest, or postponement beyond April 11, 2026. For example, 'Will the fight be won by submission?' resolves YES only if submission occurs, NO otherwise (except 50-50 for non-scored/canceled bouts).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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