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UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$1,651,533

Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan

 - Polymarket

Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 5, 2026

Closed: Apr 4, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$972,381
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Renato Moicano

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$286,094
N/A
N/A
$256,878
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Moicano to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,928
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$735
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$281
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$168
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Chris Duncan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$374,582
N/A
N/A
$343,369
Settled
No
polymarket

Duncan to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,364
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,882
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$712
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$199
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 3.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$173
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 4.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$33
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This event group covers the UFC Fight Night main card lightweight bout between Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan, scheduled for April 4, 2026. Markets span fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, distance), and fight duration (round thresholds at 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5 rounds). All markets depend on official UFC resolution and share common cancellation/postponement rules (April 18, 2026 deadline).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket provides comprehensive market definitions with detailed resolution logic, threshold specifications, and contingency rules for all fight outcomes. Kalshi provides only two market definitions that lack any resolution logic, contingency handling, or threshold specifications, making those markets fundamentally unresolvable.Hero tip: Polymarket markets are fully specified and resolvable. Kalshi's two markets are incomplete and lack critical resolution rules — avoid trading on Kalshi markets for this event until resolution logic is published, as they cannot be adjudicated fairly without it.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket provides 11 fully specified markets with detailed resolution logic, threshold definitions, contingency rules for cancellations/postponements/no-contests, and explicit resolution sources. Example: 'Over 4.5 Rounds will resolve Yes if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 5. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve 50-50. If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond April 18, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi provides only two market definitions with no resolution logic, no threshold specifications, no contingency rules, and no handling of edge cases such as draws, no-contests, cancellations, or postponements. The markets state only 'If Renato Moicano wins... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Chris Duncan wins... then the market resolves to Yes' without defining what constitutes a win, how to handle non-decisive outcomes, or what happens if the fight is canceled or postponed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.