TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card)
Volume:
$1,651,533
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the UFC Fight Night main card lightweight bout between Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan, scheduled for April 4, 2026. Markets span fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, distance), and fight duration (round thresholds at 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5 rounds). All markets depend on official UFC resolution and share common cancellation/postponement rules (April 18, 2026 deadline).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket provides comprehensive market definitions with detailed resolution logic, threshold specifications, and contingency rules for all fight outcomes. Kalshi provides only two market definitions that lack any resolution logic, contingency handling, or threshold specifications, making those markets fundamentally unresolvable.Hero Tip:
Polymarket markets are fully specified and resolvable. Kalshi's two markets are incomplete and lack critical resolution rules — avoid trading on Kalshi markets for this event until resolution logic is published, as they cannot be adjudicated fairly without it.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket provides 11 fully specified markets with detailed resolution logic, threshold definitions, contingency rules for cancellations/postponements/no-contests, and explicit resolution sources. Example: 'Over 4.5 Rounds will resolve Yes if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 5. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve 50-50. If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond April 18, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve 50-50.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi provides only two market definitions with no resolution logic, no threshold specifications, no contingency rules, and no handling of edge cases such as draws, no-contests, cancellations, or postponements. The markets state only 'If Renato Moicano wins... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Chris Duncan wins... then the market resolves to Yes' without defining what constitutes a win, how to handle non-decisive outcomes, or what happens if the fight is canceled or postponed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.