TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Punahele Soriano (Welterweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$1,230,091
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a UFC Fight Night welterweight preliminary bout between Ramiz Brahimaj and Punahele Soriano scheduled for February 21, 2026. Markets span multiple platforms and cover fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), and fight duration thresholds (over/under various round counts).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's binary winner markets (Yes if either fighter wins) lack discriminatory power compared to Polymarket's categorical and method-specific markets. Scope and resolution target differ across platforms despite unified edge-case and source handling.Hero Tip:
Use Polymarket's categorical outcome market as the primary winner determination source. Kalshi's binary markets function as 'fight completion' indicators rather than winner predictors. All platforms converge on UFC official sources and treat No Contest, cancellation beyond March 7, 2026, and exact threshold ties as 50-50 resolutions.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Binary markets resolve Yes for either Brahimaj OR Soriano winning. No discriminatory outcome. Quote: 'If Ramiz Brahimaj wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Punahele Soriano wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' This structure does not differentiate between fighters.
- Polymarket: Categorical and method-specific markets require explicit fighter identification and/or method specification. Winner market resolves to fighter name ('Ramiz Brahimaj' or 'Punahele Soriano'). Method markets (KO/TKO, submission) and duration markets (O/U rounds) are granular and discriminatory. Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Ramiz Brahimaj" if Ramiz Brahimaj is officially declared the winner...It will resolve to "Punahele Soriano" if Punahele Soriano is officially declared the winner.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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