TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Nathaniel Wood vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$1,086,186
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Nathaniel Wood and Losene Keita are scheduled to compete in a featherweight bout at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy on March 21, 2026. The event will feature multiple prediction markets covering fight outcome, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration (rounds), and whether the bout goes to a judges' decision. All markets are contingent on the fight occurring as scheduled and being officially scored by the UFC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket provides comprehensive, outcome-specific markets with detailed resolution rules for each scenario (winner, method of victory, round duration), while Kalshi offers only a single binary market that resolves YES if either fighter wins, creating fundamentally different settlement logic and unresolvable ambiguity on Kalshi.Hero Tip:
Polymarket markets are granular and independently resolvable (e.g., you can bet on Wood winning by KO separately from Keita winning by submission). Kalshi's single market resolves YES for any decisive outcome, making it unsuitable for directional or method-specific bets. If you need precise outcome prediction, use Polymarket; Kalshi only confirms the fight was not a no-contest or cancellation.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Provides eight distinct markets covering winner, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission), round duration thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds), and distance completion, each with independent resolution criteria and detailed edge-case handling. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to "Nathaniel Wood" if Nathaniel Wood is officially declared the winner' and separately 'This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nathaniel Wood defeats Losene Keita... by KO or TKO.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Offers a single binary market that resolves YES if either Losene Keita OR Nathaniel Wood wins the fight, with no differentiation by method, duration, or outcome specificity. Key quote: 'If Losene Keita wins the Wood vs Keita professional MMA fight... then the market resolves to Yes. If Nathaniel Wood wins the Wood vs Keita professional MMA fight... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.