TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Manolo Zecchini vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Main Card)
Description
This market will resolve to "Manolo Zecchini" if Manolo Zecchini is officially declared the winner of the fight against Tommy McMillen at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan, scheduled for April 4, 2026. It will resolve to "Tommy McMillen" if Tommy McMillen is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 18, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket provides comprehensive market definitions with detailed resolution criteria across 8 distinct markets (winner, distance, rounds, method of victory), while Kalshi provides only 2 incomplete market definitions that lack specificity on resolution conditions, thresholds, and edge cases. Kalshi's markets are fundamentally underspecified and unresolvable as written.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi markets for this event group. Kalshi's market definitions are incomplete and do not specify how to resolve draws, no contests, disqualifications, or postponements. Polymarket markets are fully specified with clear resolution logic, official UFC sources, and comprehensive edge-case handling. Trade only on Polymarket if you require certainty of settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier (complete specification): Polymarket defines 8 distinct markets with exhaustive resolution logic including winner determination, distance (yes/no), round thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission), and comprehensive edge cases (no contest, technical draw, postponement beyond April 18, 2026 all resolve 50-50). Each market specifies official UFC as the sole resolution source and includes boundary conditions (e.g., 'if fight ends exactly at threshold, resolve 50-50'). Example: 'Fight to Go the Distance' resolves YES only if fight completes all scheduled rounds and result is by judges' scorecards; technical decisions or technical draws before completion resolve NO.
- Kalshi: Outlier (incomplete specification): Kalshi provides only 2 market definitions with minimal detail. Market 1 states 'If Manolo Zecchini wins...then resolves to Yes' and Market 2 states 'If Tommy McMillen wins...then resolves to Yes' with no specification of what 'wins' means, no handling of draws, no contest, disqualification, postponement, or other edge cases. No resolution source is cited. No thresholds, timing conditions, or boundary rules are defined. Markets are logically incomplete and cannot be reliably settled.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.