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404,175

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UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Card)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$2,158,606

Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell

 - Polymarket

Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 22, 2026

Closed: Mar 21, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,041,079
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Luke Riley

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$753,633
N/A
N/A
$604,850
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,872
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,126
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$51
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$51
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Michael Aswell

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$358,199
N/A
N/A
$256,865
Settled
No
polymarket

Riley to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,362
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$59
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Aswell to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$54
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to "Luke Riley" if Luke Riley is officially declared the winner of the fight against Michael Aswell at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy, scheduled for March 21, 2026. It will resolve to "Michael Aswell" if Michael Aswell is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution scopes. Kalshi resolves on a binary winner outcome (either fighter wins), while Polymarket provides granular fight-outcome markets (KO/TKO, submission, distance, round duration) with distinct resolution criteria. Kalshi's markets are logically incomplete and cannot resolve to a single outcome for most realistic fight scenarios.Hero tip: Do not cross-hedge Kalshi and Polymarket markets in this group. Kalshi's two markets (Riley wins / Aswell wins) will both resolve YES if either fighter wins, creating a logical impossibility. Polymarket's markets are independently resolvable and should be treated as separate outcome bets. If you trade Kalshi, understand that the platform's resolution rules appear malformed and may require manual intervention.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi provides only two markets, both resolving YES if their respective fighter wins the bout. The rules state 'If Luke Riley wins the Riley vs Aswell professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' and identically for Aswell, creating a logical flaw where both markets cannot coexist as mutually exclusive outcomes. No round duration, method-of-victory, or distance criteria are specified.
  • Polymarket: Aligned with standard UFC resolution practice: Polymarket offers eight distinct markets covering fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, distance), and round duration thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds). Each market has independent resolution criteria tied to official UFC data. For example, 'Will Michael Aswell win by KO or TKO?' resolves YES only if Aswell wins AND the finish is by KO/TKO, not by decision or submission.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.