TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Card)
Description
This market will resolve to "Luke Riley" if Luke Riley is officially declared the winner of the fight against Michael Aswell at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy, scheduled for March 21, 2026. It will resolve to "Michael Aswell" if Michael Aswell is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution scopes. Kalshi resolves on a binary winner outcome (either fighter wins), while Polymarket provides granular fight-outcome markets (KO/TKO, submission, distance, round duration) with distinct resolution criteria. Kalshi's markets are logically incomplete and cannot resolve to a single outcome for most realistic fight scenarios.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge Kalshi and Polymarket markets in this group. Kalshi's two markets (Riley wins / Aswell wins) will both resolve YES if either fighter wins, creating a logical impossibility. Polymarket's markets are independently resolvable and should be treated as separate outcome bets. If you trade Kalshi, understand that the platform's resolution rules appear malformed and may require manual intervention.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi provides only two markets, both resolving YES if their respective fighter wins the bout. The rules state 'If Luke Riley wins the Riley vs Aswell professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' and identically for Aswell, creating a logical flaw where both markets cannot coexist as mutually exclusive outcomes. No round duration, method-of-victory, or distance criteria are specified.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard UFC resolution practice: Polymarket offers eight distinct markets covering fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, distance), and round duration thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds). Each market has independent resolution criteria tied to official UFC data. For example, 'Will Michael Aswell win by KO or TKO?' resolves YES only if Aswell wins AND the finish is by KO/TKO, not by decision or submission.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.