TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Main Card)
Volume:
$2,593,077
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers prediction markets on the UFC Fight Night bantamweight bout between Kyler Phillips and Charles Jourdain, scheduled for April 18, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott. Markets span fight duration (round thresholds), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), and outright winner determination. All resolution hinges on official UFC scoring and bout outcome classification.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market logic is fundamentally broken and unresolvable. The market states it resolves YES if EITHER fighter wins, which means it resolves YES for all possible outcomes (100% certainty), violating basic binary market logic. Polymarket markets are properly structured with mutually exclusive outcomes and clear resolution criteria.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market. It is logically incoherent and will almost certainly resolve to a platform error or 50-50 split. All trading activity on Kalshi for this event should be avoided. Polymarket markets are tradeable and follow standard MMA resolution conventions.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Seven distinct, mutually exclusive markets with clear resolution criteria: (1) Winner (Phillips vs Jourdain, with 50-50 for draw/NC/postponement), (2) Distance (Yes if full rounds completed, 50-50 for NC/postponement), (3) KO/TKO (Yes if either fighter wins by KO/TKO), (4) Phillips KO/TKO (Yes if Phillips wins by KO/TKO), (5) Jourdain KO/TKO (Yes if Jourdain wins by KO/TKO), (6-8) Round Over/Under thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds with 50-50 at exact threshold or if not scored). All reference official UFC sources. Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Kyler Phillips" if Kyler Phillips is officially declared the winner... It will resolve to "Charles Jourdain" if Charles Jourdain is officially declared the winner.'
- Kalshi: Single market with logically contradictory resolution criteria. States: 'If Charles Jourdain wins the Jourdain vs Phillips professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kyler Phillips wins the Jourdain vs Phillips professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This means the market resolves YES regardless of which fighter wins, making it impossible to resolve to NO under any normal fight outcome. Quote: Both outcomes explicitly resolve to Yes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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