TOTAL VOLUME:

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$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

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2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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61%

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UFC Fight Night: Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope (Lightweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope (Lightweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$615,556

Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope

 - Polymarket

Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 5, 2026

Closed: Apr 4, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$206,282
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kai Kamaka III

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$185,683
N/A
N/A
$150,161
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Kamaka III to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$178
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$876
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$365
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$106
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$41
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Dakota Hope

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$220,767
N/A
N/A
$188,855
Settled
No
polymarket

Hope to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$163
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,010
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$86
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market resolves based on the outcome of the UFC Fight Night lightweight preliminary bout between Kai Kamaka III and Dakota Hope, originally scheduled for April 4, 2026. The market will settle to Yes if either fighter wins the match via decision, knockout, submission, or any other victory condition recognized by the UFC.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different underlying events. Kalshi resolves on a binary winner outcome (either fighter wins), while Polymarket offers four distinct markets with different resolution criteria (fight distance, KO/TKO outcomes, submission outcomes, and specific fighter KO/TKO outcomes). Critically, Kalshi's market structure is logically incoherent: both 'Kai Kamaka III wins' and 'Dakota Hope wins' resolve to YES, which violates basic mutual exclusivity and makes the market unresolvable.Hero tip: AVOID KALSHI MARKET. The Kalshi market has a fatal logical flaw where both possible fight outcomes (either fighter winning) resolve to YES, making it impossible to determine a correct resolution. Trade only on Polymarket markets, which have clear, mutually exclusive resolution criteria. If you hold Kalshi positions, seek clarification from Kalshi support before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory. The market states 'If Kai Kamaka III wins...then resolves to Yes' AND 'If Dakota Hope wins...then resolves to Yes.' This means every possible fight outcome (either fighter winning) results in YES, violating basic logical consistency. No clear NO resolution condition exists for a decisive fight outcome. This makes the market fundamentally unresolvable and incompatible with standard prediction market logic.
  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers four separate, mutually exclusive markets with clear resolution criteria: (1) Fight Distance (Yes if goes full rounds/judges decision, No if early stoppage), (2) KO/TKO Winner (Yes if either fighter wins by KO/TKO, No otherwise), (3) Winner (Kai or Dakota, 50-50 if draw/no contest), and (4) Submission (Yes if fight ends by submission, No otherwise). Each market has explicit, non-overlapping resolution conditions and consistent tie-breaking rules (50-50 for no contest/postponement beyond April 18, 2026).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.