TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope (Lightweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$615,556
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market resolves based on the outcome of the UFC Fight Night lightweight preliminary bout between Kai Kamaka III and Dakota Hope, originally scheduled for April 4, 2026. The market will settle to Yes if either fighter wins the match via decision, knockout, submission, or any other victory condition recognized by the UFC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different underlying events. Kalshi resolves on a binary winner outcome (either fighter wins), while Polymarket offers four distinct markets with different resolution criteria (fight distance, KO/TKO outcomes, submission outcomes, and specific fighter KO/TKO outcomes). Critically, Kalshi's market structure is logically incoherent: both 'Kai Kamaka III wins' and 'Dakota Hope wins' resolve to YES, which violates basic mutual exclusivity and makes the market unresolvable.Hero Tip:
AVOID KALSHI MARKET. The Kalshi market has a fatal logical flaw where both possible fight outcomes (either fighter winning) resolve to YES, making it impossible to determine a correct resolution. Trade only on Polymarket markets, which have clear, mutually exclusive resolution criteria. If you hold Kalshi positions, seek clarification from Kalshi support before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory. The market states 'If Kai Kamaka III wins...then resolves to Yes' AND 'If Dakota Hope wins...then resolves to Yes.' This means every possible fight outcome (either fighter winning) results in YES, violating basic logical consistency. No clear NO resolution condition exists for a decisive fight outcome. This makes the market fundamentally unresolvable and incompatible with standard prediction market logic.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers four separate, mutually exclusive markets with clear resolution criteria: (1) Fight Distance (Yes if goes full rounds/judges decision, No if early stoppage), (2) KO/TKO Winner (Yes if either fighter wins by KO/TKO, No otherwise), (3) Winner (Kai or Dakota, 50-50 if draw/no contest), and (4) Submission (Yes if fight ends by submission, No otherwise). Each market has explicit, non-overlapping resolution conditions and consistent tie-breaking rules (50-50 for no contest/postponement beyond April 18, 2026).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.