TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
UFC Fight Night: Josiah Harrell vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main Card)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Josiah Harrell vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$584,260

Jacobe Smith by KO/TKO/DQ

 - Kalshi

Jacobe Smith by KO/TKO/DQ - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Feb 22, 2026

Will Jacobe Smith win the Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Jacobe Smith by KO/TKO/DQ

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$61,962
0%
0%
$47,872
N/A
polymarket

Smith to win by KO/TKO?

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$643
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$239
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$91
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Josiah Harrell vs. Jacobe Smith

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$473,733
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
kalshi

Josiah Harrell by KO/TKO/DQ

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,155
0%
0%
$16,102
N/A
kalshi

Jacobe Smith by Submission

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,743
0%
0%
$7,606
N/A
kalshi

Jacobe Smith by Decision

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,236
0%
0%
$7,091
N/A
kalshi

Josiah Harrell by Decision

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,705
0%
0%
$5,691
N/A
kalshi

Josiah Harrell by Submission

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,109
0%
0%
$4,079
N/A
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,291
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,256
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
kalshi

Draw

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,069
0%
0%
$1,069
N/A
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$829
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$127
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Harrell to win by KO/TKO?

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$71
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total markets: 16

Description

This event group covers multiple prediction markets for the UFC Fight Night welterweight main card bout between Josiah Harrell and Jacobe Smith, scheduled for February 21, 2026. Markets span moneyline outcomes, method of victory, fight duration, and round thresholds across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi presents a universal catch-all market (all outcomes resolve Yes), while Polymarket offers outcome-specific markets with conditional 50-50 resolution for draws, no contests, and postponements beyond March 7, 2026. The platforms measure different things: Kalshi confirms the fight occurred, Polymarket determines winner and method.Hero tip: Treat Kalshi's market as a binary fight-happens indicator. For Polymarket, identify which specific market you are settling (moneyline, method, duration) and apply the corresponding outcome rules. Always source the official UFC result from UFC.com. If the fight is postponed beyond March 7, 2026, or declared a no contest, Polymarket markets resolve 50-50; Kalshi's universal Yes structure does not address this scenario explicitly.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Universal catch-all structure: all seven conditions resolve to Yes. Covers draw, Harrell win (decision/KO/TKO/submission), and Smith win (decision/KO/TKO/submission). No explicit handling of cancellation, postponement, or no contest. Key quote: 'If the result is Draw during the Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell UFC fight originally scheduled for Feb 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Outcome-specific markets with conditional 50-50 fallback. Moneyline resolves to fighter name or 50-50 for draw/no contest/postponement beyond March 7. Method markets (KO/TKO, submission, distance) resolve Yes/No or 50-50 for draw/disqualification/no contest/postponement. Key quote: 'If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 7, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.