TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Josiah Harrell vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main Card)
Volume:
$584,260
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers multiple prediction markets for the UFC Fight Night welterweight main card bout between Josiah Harrell and Jacobe Smith, scheduled for February 21, 2026. Markets span moneyline outcomes, method of victory, fight duration, and round thresholds across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents a universal catch-all market (all outcomes resolve Yes), while Polymarket offers outcome-specific markets with conditional 50-50 resolution for draws, no contests, and postponements beyond March 7, 2026. The platforms measure different things: Kalshi confirms the fight occurred, Polymarket determines winner and method.Hero Tip:
Treat Kalshi's market as a binary fight-happens indicator. For Polymarket, identify which specific market you are settling (moneyline, method, duration) and apply the corresponding outcome rules. Always source the official UFC result from UFC.com. If the fight is postponed beyond March 7, 2026, or declared a no contest, Polymarket markets resolve 50-50; Kalshi's universal Yes structure does not address this scenario explicitly.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Universal catch-all structure: all seven conditions resolve to Yes. Covers draw, Harrell win (decision/KO/TKO/submission), and Smith win (decision/KO/TKO/submission). No explicit handling of cancellation, postponement, or no contest. Key quote: 'If the result is Draw during the Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell UFC fight originally scheduled for Feb 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outcome-specific markets with conditional 50-50 fallback. Moneyline resolves to fighter name or 50-50 for draw/no contest/postponement beyond March 7. Method markets (KO/TKO, submission, distance) resolve Yes/No or 50-50 for draw/disqualification/no contest/postponement. Key quote: 'If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 7, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.