TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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UFC Fight Night: Jose Daniel Medina vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Jose Daniel Medina vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$658,264

Ryan Gandra

 - Kalshi

Ryan Gandra - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 1, 2026

Closed: Mar 1, 12:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Ryan Gandra

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$222,239
N/A
N/A
$136,601
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Gandra to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$980
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$529
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jose Daniel Medina

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$327,337
N/A
N/A
$321,775
Settled
No
polymarket

Medina vs. Gandra

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$82,654
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,601
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$377
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$164
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$134
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$129
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Medina to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers multiple prediction markets for the UFC Fight Night preliminary middleweight bout between Jose Daniel Medina and Ryan Gandra, scheduled for February 28, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh. Markets span fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), distance (round thresholds), and fight completion.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets omit explicit contingency rules (draws, no contests, cancellations, postponements) and do not cite a resolution source, while Polymarket provides comprehensive edge-case handling and specifies official UFC as the authoritative source.Hero tip: Polymarket markets are more robust for traders concerned about tail risks. Kalshi's silence on draws and cancellations creates ambiguity. If you trade Kalshi, contact support to confirm how non-decisive outcomes (draw, technical draw, no contest) and postponements beyond the scheduled date are resolved. Polymarket's 50-50 rule for these scenarios is explicit and trader-friendly.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary winner markets (Medina wins / Gandra wins) with no explicit contingency language. No mention of draws, technical decisions, no contests, cancellations, or postponements. No resolution source cited. Ambiguity on how non-binary outcomes resolve.
  • Polymarket: Comprehensive contingency framework across all markets. Draws, technical draws, no contests, cancellations, and postponements beyond March 14, 2026 all resolve 50-50. Official UFC sources cited as authoritative. Method-of-victory markets (KO/TKO, submission) and distance markets (O/U rounds) all include explicit 50-50 clauses for edge cases.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.