TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: John Castaneda vs. Mark Vologdin (Bantamweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$1,593,329
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a bantamweight preliminary fight between John Castaneda and Mark Vologdin scheduled for UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott on April 18, 2026. Markets span fight outcome (winner), finish method (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration (round thresholds at 0.5, 1.5, and 2.5 rounds), and whether the fight goes the distance to a judges' decision.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market logic is fundamentally incomplete and unresolvable. Kalshi's market resolves YES if EITHER fighter wins, creating a logical contradiction where the market cannot resolve NO under any outcome. Polymarket provides comprehensive, mutually exclusive resolution criteria across multiple markets.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market. It is logically broken—it will resolve YES regardless of fight outcome (Castaneda wins = YES, Vologdin wins = YES, draw/NC/cancel = undefined). Polymarket markets are tradeable and have clear resolution paths for all scenarios including draws, no contests, and cancellations.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket provides 8 distinct, mutually exclusive markets with comprehensive coverage: (1) Head-to-head winner (resolves to named fighter or 50-50 for draw/NC/cancel), (2) Fight Distance (Yes/No/50-50), (3) KO/TKO finish (Yes/No/50-50), (4) Castaneda KO/TKO win (Yes/No/50-50), (5) Vologdin KO/TKO win (Yes/No/50-50), (6) Submission finish (Yes/No/50-50), and (3) Round duration thresholds (Over/Under/50-50). All markets include explicit 50-50 resolution for draws, no contests, cancellations, and postponements beyond May 2, 2026. Quote: 'If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 2, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
- Kalshi: Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction. The stated resolution is: 'If John Castaneda wins the Castaneda vs Vologdin professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mark Vologdin wins the Castaneda vs Vologdin professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This means the market resolves YES for both possible fight outcomes, making NO resolution impossible. No resolution path is defined for draws, no contests, cancellations, or postponements. The market is unresolvable.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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