TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$1,790,857

Tofiq Musayev

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 29, 2026

Closed: Mar 29, 12:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tofiq Musayev

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$505,851
N/A
N/A
$350,805
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$706,428
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16,907
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,693
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$142
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ignacio Bahamondes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$553,316
N/A
N/A
$418,503
Settled
No
polymarket

Musayev to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,225
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Bahamondes to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$750
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$406
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$121
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers a lightweight preliminary bout between Ignacio Bahamondes and Tofiq Musayev scheduled for UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer on March 28, 2026. Markets span winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds), and whether the fight goes the distance. All resolution sources reference official UFC information.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market resolves YES if EITHER fighter wins (logically impossible for a binary market), while Polymarket correctly resolves to the individual winner or 50-50 for non-decisive outcomes. Kalshi's resolution criteria are contradictory and unresolvable.Hero tip: Avoid Kalshi's winner market entirely — it cannot resolve correctly because both possible fight outcomes (Bahamondes wins OR Musayev wins) trigger YES. Trade only on Polymarket's markets, which have coherent resolution logic for all outcomes including draws, no contests, and postponements beyond April 11, 2026.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's winner market states 'If Ignacio Bahamondes wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Tofiq Musayev wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility where every decisive fight outcome resolves YES, making the market unresolvable and data-integrity compromised.
  • Polymarket: Polymarket provides coherent resolution logic: the market resolves to the name of the official winner (Bahamondes or Musayev), or to 50-50 if the fight ends in a draw, technical draw, no contest, is not scored, is canceled, or is postponed beyond April 11, 2026. All outcome scenarios are covered with mutually exclusive resolution paths.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.