TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$1,790,857
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a lightweight preliminary bout between Ignacio Bahamondes and Tofiq Musayev scheduled for UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer on March 28, 2026. Markets span winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds), and whether the fight goes the distance. All resolution sources reference official UFC information.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES if EITHER fighter wins (logically impossible for a binary market), while Polymarket correctly resolves to the individual winner or 50-50 for non-decisive outcomes. Kalshi's resolution criteria are contradictory and unresolvable.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi's winner market entirely — it cannot resolve correctly because both possible fight outcomes (Bahamondes wins OR Musayev wins) trigger YES. Trade only on Polymarket's markets, which have coherent resolution logic for all outcomes including draws, no contests, and postponements beyond April 11, 2026.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's winner market states 'If Ignacio Bahamondes wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Tofiq Musayev wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility where every decisive fight outcome resolves YES, making the market unresolvable and data-integrity compromised.
- Polymarket: Polymarket provides coherent resolution logic: the market resolves to the name of the official winner (Bahamondes or Musayev), or to 50-50 if the fight ends in a draw, technical draw, no contest, is not scored, is canceled, or is postponed beyond April 11, 2026. All outcome scenarios are covered with mutually exclusive resolution paths.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.